It feels too soon and yet so far away to be declaring my final prognostication of the 2025 Oscar nominations, but I just don’t see myself tweaking anything else until the upcoming Thursday announcement, especially after SAG, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, WGA have announced their nominations and the Golden Globes ceremony has passed. With the LA wildfires seemingly nearing the last of their wrath, and only devastation left behind, how will voters who were given extra voting time, even want to cast their ballots? Will we see a heavier International influence, votes coming from across the pond to tip the scale over LA local members who may not even bother? Another question on everyone’s mind may be… how many nominations will the divisive Emilia Perez and will it match the all-time record of 14… or (and it’s possible)… can it make it to 15 or 16? Without further ado, tally-ho.

Let’s begin with the shorts. I don’t have a lot of thoughts on these. Unless you’ve actually seen them all, and I have seen none, it’s usually best to predict what Gold Derby assumes is the top 5, with a few exceptions. (Pay attention to film titles, often if it’s a unique enough titled, or humorously titled short, it catches the attention of the voter. They may watch it based off the title and not get around to everything. I have no valid proof of that but My Year of Dicks and An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It both made it in Best Animated Short in 2023.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

“A BEAR NAMED WOJTEK”
“BEAUTIFUL MEN”
“A CRAB IN THE POOL”
“WANDER TO WONDER”
“YUCK!”

Alternative: “ME”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

“ANJULA”
“DOVECOAT”
“THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT”
“THE MASTERPIECE”
“AN ORANGE FROM JAFFA”

Alternative: “THE ICE CREAM MAN”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

“CHASING ROO”
“DEATH BY NUMBERS”
“I AM READY, WARDEN”
“MAKAYLA’S VOICE: A LETTER TO THE WORLD”
“ONCE UPON A TIME IN UKRAINE”

Alternative: “INCIDENT”

If anything, in regards to the Song category, you are guaranteed 3/5 as long as you reserve two spots for Emilia Perez and one spot for Dianne Warren. I’m extremely skeptical with how the Academy is going to embrace Challengers in the Music categories, but it has been a critics favorite and it won the Golden Globe, cue a cheering Elton John. The music branch is very back and forth with Reznor and Ross, two Oscar wins, but also so many egregious snubs. Part of me thinks the Score gets in, but the Song gets left off. It’s also a gamble, despite its awards success, to predict The Wild Robot in either category as the Academy has been weirdly resistant to Animated films the last couple of years. But the Academy seems to have a deep respect for Kris Bowers, awarding The Last Repair Shop in Best Documentary Short last year and including him on many prior shortlists the last few years, it’s clear they want to nominate him and have been waiting for the right film. Holding my breath that Alberto Iglesias, an Oscar favorite in this category, will surprise here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

“THE BRUTALIST” – Daniel Bloomberg
“CHALLENGERS” – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“CONCLAVE”- Volker Bertlemann
“EMILIA PEREZ” – Camille and Clement Ducol
“THE WILD ROBOT” – Kris Bowers

Alternative: “THE ROOM NEXT DOOR” – Alberto Iglesias

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” – EMILIA PEREZ
“The Journey” – THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Kiss the Sky” – THE WILD ROBOT
“Mi Camino” – EMILIA PEREZ
“Will and Harper Go West” – WILL AND HARPER

Alternative: “Compress/Repress” – CHALLENGERS

With many of the tech contenders, most bakeoff presentations have been canceled due to the wildfires and most of the showcases by shortlisted contenders have been made as private links and pre-recorded Academy Room Q&As. Hearing word from how the presentations went usually aids predictions. This year, we’re going in mostly blind.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“ALIEN: ROMULUS”
“BETTER MAN”
“DUNE PART II”
“KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES”
“WICKED”

Alternative: “TWISTERS”

BEST SOUND

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“DUNE PART II”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“GLADIATOR II”
“WICKED”

Alternative: “THE WILD ROBOT”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“THE BRUTALIST”
“DUNE PART II”
“GLADIATOR II”
“NOSFERATU”
“WICKED”

Alternative: “CONCLAVE”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“DUNE PART II”
“GLADIATOR II”
“NOSFERATU”
“WICKED”

Alternative: “CONCLAVE”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

“BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE”
“A DIFFERENT MAN”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“NOSFERATU”
“THE SUBSTANCE”

Alternative: “WICKED”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“THE BRUTALIST”
“CONCLAVE”
“DUNE PART II”
“THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE”
“NOSFERATU”

Alternative: “MARIA”

BEST EDITING

“ANORA”
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“CHALLENGERS”
“CONCLAVE”
“EMILIA PEREZ”

Alternative: “SEPTEMBER 5”

Stay tuned for PART II: The Major Categories in just a couple days.