We are but two days away now from the big morning announcement and I’m only a little bit shakin’ in my boots. I published what I published for my Techs predictions and I’m refusing to go back now, as much as I’m already fretting about categories such as Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound, Best Song, Best Editing, etc. But gut instinct and a little bit of hopedicting can reap wonderful rewards… or it can kick my ass. Anyway, on with the show. To present the rest of the categories (this is how I imagine it in my head), please welcome President of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, Janet Yang and last year’s Oscar winner DaVine Joy Randolph (they walk to a podium with five television screens behind them, each prepared to showcase the images and names of the nominees, including film titles in their proper title cards).

Yes, I’m caving to Curtis, but I don’t feel good about it. Seeing the film, she is a shot of tequila in a drunk mess of a movie, but with her, your mileage may vary. It does make sense that she now has the opportunity for an afterglow nomination after her insane awards run for a bizarre performance in Everything Everywhere. Her and Anderson felt like your average SAG nominations until BAFTA proved they loved Curtis as well. She’s still cresting at my bottom spot, hanging on only because when there is a last spot, it usually goes to a veteran or former nominee. Gomez could get pulled in with Saldana, and even the unthinkable could happen with a miss for Jones (whose performance is only featured in the back half of The Brutalist, post intermission, given voters watching at home made it all the way through their screener).

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jamie Lee Curtis – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
Ariana Grande – “WICKED”
Felicity Jones – “THE BRUTALIST”
Isabella Rosellini – “CONCLAVE”
Zoe Saldana – “EMILIA PEREZ”

Alternative: Selena Gomez – “EMILIA PEREZ”

I’m making the tough last minute decision to bump Borisov, leaving Madison as the soul acting representation for her film. There’s always one that gets in everywhere and misses. It’s not going to be Culkin. Norton’s film is growing too big to ignore. Pearce’s SAG miss was only a bump in the road to his first Oscar nod. Strong and Stan feel like this year’s Annette Bening/Jodie Foster (spoilers for Best Actor). Borisov is still a new name and may fair better with hopefully a flashy lead role in a prestige picture with this awards run as his Hollywood career takeoff. Maclin is a tough inclusion as he hasn’t had the best trajectory, but that’s all in part to Sing Sing‘s odd campaign. Something tells me, though, that the film may surprise with a handful of nominations. Either that, or it could be a sole Domingo nomination. But I’m choosing to believe the Academy will bite with this one after all.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kieran Culkin – “A REAL PAIN”
Clarence Maclin – “SING SING”
Edward Norton – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Guy Pearce – “THE BRUTALIST”
Jeremy Strong – “THE APPRENTICE”

Alternative: Yura Borisov – “ANORA”

Marianne Jean-Baptise gives the best leading actress performance of this new decade so far and yet I don’t trust a Bleeker Street campaign with my life. It stings a thousand stings to leave her off, but even though she is a former nominee, the film’s profile seems to be too small and her character too divisively off-putting. She’s in the Daniel Craig position this year it seems (though BAFTA luck flipped). She should be here easily, no question. But the characters they play in the (incredible) feel-bad movies they’re in do them no favors.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cynthia Erivo – “WICKED”
Karla-Sofia Gascon – “EMILIA PEREZ”
Mikey Madison – “ANORA”
Demi Moore – “THE SUBSTANCE”
Fernanda Torres – “I’M STILL HERE”

Alternative: Marianne Jean-Baptiste – “HARD TRUTHS”

As I said above, Craig is gonna miss and my heart is not going to be able to take it. I still put him above Hugh Grant though. I’ve wanted a Grant nomination for decades but I will eat a shoe if he gets in for an A24 horror movie.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Adrien Brody – “THE BRUTALIST”
Timothee Chalamet – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Colman Domingo – “SING SING”
Ralph Fiennes – “CONCLAVE”
Sebastian Stan – “THE APPRENTICE”

Alternative: Daniel Craig – “QUEER”

Yay to Coralie Fargeat if she makes it in here, not just that it’s a relief to feel confident in predicting a female name amongst the five (it was looking dire months ago), but because it would be one of the coolest Directing nominations since David Lynch for Mulholland Dr. Nay to the Academy robbing Denis Villeneuve yet again. I’m ready for these snubs, guys, I just don’t like them! Look out, though. I could see a Sean Baker snub come out of nowhere.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Sean Baker – “ANORA”
Brady Corbet – “THE BRUTALIST”
Edward Berger – “CONCLAVE”
Jacques Audiard – “EMILIA PEREZ”
Coralie Fargeat – “THE SUBSTANCE”

Alternative: Denis Villeneuve – “DUNE PART II”

Every year there is at least one lone Screenplay nominee. This year, though, it could go all non-single nominee films… but I can’t commit to that theory. The last slot in Best Picture is down to a handful of films that only stand the chance at 2-4 nominations max between September 5, Nickel Boys, Challengers, and Sing Sing. But one is going to single out. As a for sure writing nominee, with little hope of anything else, I have to include the masterpiece that is Nickel Boys. With its eligible WGA nomination and multiple screenplay nominations this year even with poor luck elsewhere, it is a feat of adaptation that feels too cruel to ignore. Unless it bags that Editing nomination or Best Picture, I’m going out on a limb and predicting one more lone nominee in September 5. I just know the Academy is a fan of that film, even if it’s been barely honored anywhere all season. It’s also a very Margin Call-type nominee, heavy on situational dialogue to keep the story gripping.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“ANORA” – Screenplay by Sean Baker
“THE BRUTALIST” – Screenplay by Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
“A REAL PAIN” – Screenplay by Jesse Eisenberg
“SEPTEMBER 5” – Screenplay by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum & Alex David
“THE SUBSTANCE” – Screenplay by Coralie Fargeat

Alternative: “CHALLENGERS” Screenplay by Justin Kuritzkes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” – Screenplay by James Mangold & Jay Cocks
“CONCLAVE” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan
“EMILIA PEREZ” – Screenplay by Jacques Audiard
“NICKEL BOYS” – Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
“SING SING” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Alternative: “DUNE PART II” – Denis Villeneuve & Jon Spaihts

Part of me feels I’m being gaslit into predicting Vermiglio, but pundits seem to insist it is Academy catnip. The Girl With the Needle paired with a surprise Cinematography nomination feels right. I was never predicting Kneecap due to it just being too… is “hip” the right word? Too “modern”? Too “young”? But it’s incredible showing at BAFTA proves it has a ton of support. If there’s a big snub here, I think it’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, but I don’t feel good about that either. Something random is going to show up here unexpectedly, I can just feel it.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

“EMILIA PEREZ” (France)
“THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE” (Denmark)
“I’M STILL HERE” (Brazil)
“KNEECAP” (Ireland)
“VERMIGLIO” (Italy)

Alternative: “THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG (Germany)”

Nothing surprising happening here, though. These are the unsinkable 5. I know Moana got the PGA nomination, but for a branch that doesn’t love rewarding sequels (not even Frozen), mixed reviewed films (except for Boss Baby of course) and usually skews international anyway, I’m not worried. What could surprise here is a resurgence of Piece by Piece or one the Annie Awards really appreciated, Chicken for Linda!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“FLOW”
“INSIDE OUT 2”
“MEMOIR OF A SNAIL”
“WALLACE AND GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL”
“THE WILD ROBOT”

Alternative: “PIECE BY PIECE”

One of the hardest categories of the night because the Doc branch is pure madness. This category usually trends political/war/historical, so I’m selecting a mix of 5 BAFTA/PGA/DGA nominees for the top 4 and choosing one big snub, then last picking a softie emotional feel good documentary to balance it out. Part of me wants to go Daughters, but thankfully for Will & Harper, it’s more unconventional than the typical celebrity focused documentary that often does well with precursors and blanks at Oscars. Plus that Song nomination that pairs with! Fingers crossed. If Will & Harper does get in, it may threaten to win the category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“BLACK BOX DIARIES”
“NO OTHER LAND”
“PORCELAIN WAR”
“SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT”
“WILL & HARPER”

Alternative: “SUGARCANE”

Finally, we reach the end. The Top 8 (Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune Part II, Emilia Perez, The Substance (!!), and Wicked) are all getting in, no question. A Real Pain has an acting win and Screenplay nominee under its total. I’m convinced it’s in. September 5 and Nickel Boys may get those Screenplay nominations and that’s really all you need… but Sing Sing has a package that feels incomplete without a Best Picture nomination. For a film that was looked at as a contender to dominate this year, it really never picked up traction, only due to what I can assume is a lack of people actually watching it. Nickel Boys almost suffers the same fate, but Sing Sing is a heartwarming movie that leaves you on an authentically positive note. Praise is rapturous for it when its screened. It’s been in the conversation since last year’s festival season. It has an acting nomination, maybe two. Maybe a Song nominee. It has the weight to squeeze in with a voting body this large, diverse, and it’s current campaigning is intentionally timed. It’s no guarantee, but I’m placing my bet.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

“ANORA”
“THE BRUTALIST”
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“CONCLAVE”
“DUNE PART II”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“A REAL PAIN”
“SING SING”
“THE SUBSTANCE”
“WICKED”

Alternative: “SEPTEMBER 5”

Am I crazy? Let me know in the comments and as a final tally, here is a recap of my complete predictions.

BEST MOTION PICTURE
“ANORA”
“THE BRUTALIST”
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“CONCLAVE”
“DUNE PART II”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“A REAL PAIN”
“SING SING”
“THE SUBSTANCE”
“WICKED”

BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker – “ANORA”
Brady Corbet – “THE BRUTALIST”
Edward Berger – “CONCLAVE”
Jacques Audiard – “EMILIA PEREZ”
Coralie Fargeat – “THE SUBSTANCE”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody – “THE BRUTALIST”
Timothee Chalamet – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Colman Domingo – “SING SING”
Ralph Fiennes – “CONCLAVE”
Sebastian Stan – “THE APPRENTICE

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo – “WICKED”
Karla-Sofia Gascon – “EMILIA PEREZ”
Mikey Madison – “ANORA”
Demi Moore – “THE SUBSTANCE”
Fernanda Torres – “I’M STILL HERE”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kieran Culkin – “A REAL PAIN”
Clarence Maclin – “SING SING”
Edward Norton – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
Guy Pearce – “THE BRUTALIST”
Jeremy Strong – “THE APPRENTICE”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jamie Lee Curtis – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
Ariana Grande – “WICKED”
Felicity Jones – “THE BRUTALIST”
Isabella Rosellini – “CONCLAVE”
Zoe Saldana – “EMILIA PEREZ”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“ANORA” – Screenplay by Sean Baker
“THE BRUTALIST” – Screenplay by Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
“A REAL PAIN” – Screenplay by Jesse Eisenberg
“SEPTEMBER 5” – Screenplay by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum & Alex David
“THE SUBSTANCE” – Screenplay by Coralie Fargeat

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” – Screenplay by James Mangold & Jay Cocks
“CONCLAVE” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan
“EMILIA PEREZ” – Screenplay by Jacques Audiard
“NICKEL BOYS” – Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
“SING SING” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“EMILIA PEREZ” (France)
“THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE” (Denmark)
“I’M STILL HERE” (Brazil)
“KNEECAP” (Ireland)
“VERMIGLIO” (Italy)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“FLOW”
“INSIDE OUT 2”
“MEMOIR OF A SNAIL”
“WALLACE AND GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL”
“THE WILD ROBOT

“BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“BLACK BOX DIARIES”
“NO OTHER LAND”
“PORCELAIN WAR”
“SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT”
“WILL & HARPER”

BEST EDITING
“ANORA”
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“CHALLENGERS”
“CONCLAVE”
“EMILIA PEREZ”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“THE BRUTALIST”
“CONCLAVE”
“DUNE PART II”
“THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE”
“NOSFERATU”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE”
“A DIFFERENT MAN”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“NOSFERATU”
“THE SUBSTANCE”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“DUNE PART II”
“GLADIATOR II”
“NOSFERATU”
“WICKED”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“THE BRUTALIST”
“DUNE PART II”
“GLADIATOR II”
“NOSFERATU”
“WICKED”

BEST SOUND
“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
“DUNE PART II”
“EMILIA PEREZ”
“GLADIATOR II”
“WICKED”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“ALIEN: ROMULUS”
“BETTER MAN”
“DUNE PART II”
“KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES”
“WICKED”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” – EMILIA PEREZ
“The Journey” – THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Kiss the Sky” – THE WILD ROBOT
“Mi Camino” – EMILIA PEREZ
“Will and Harper Go West” – WILL AND HARPER

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“THE BRUTALIST” – Daniel Bloomberg
“CHALLENGERS” – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“CONCLAVE”- Volker Bertlemann
“EMILIA PEREZ” – Camille and Clement Ducol
“THE WILD ROBOT” – Kris Bowers

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“CHASING ROO”
“DEATH BY NUMBERS”
“I AM READY, WARDEN”
“MAKAYLA’S VOICE: A LETTER TO THE WORLD”
“ONCE UPON A TIME IN UKRAINE”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
“ANJULA”
“DOVECOAT”
“THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT”
“THE MASTERPIECE”
“AN ORANGE FROM JAFFA”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“A BEAR NAMED WOJTEK”
“BEAUTIFUL MEN”
“A CRAB IN THE POOL”
“WANDER TO WONDER”
“YUCK!”

NOMINATION TALLY:

“EMILIA PEREZ” – 12 nominations

“THE BRUTALIST” – 9 nominations

“CONCLAVE” – 8 nominations

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” – 7 nominations
“WICKED” – 7 nominations

“DUNE PART II” – 6 nominations

“THE SUBSTANCE” – 5 nominations

“NOSFERATU” – 4 nominations
“SING SING” – 4 nominations

“GLADIATOR II” – 3 nominations
“A REAL PAIN” – 3 nominations
“THE WILD ROBOT” – 3 nominations

“THE APPRENTICE” – 2 nominations
“CHALLENGERS” – 2 nominations
“THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE” – 2 nominations
“I’M STILL HERE” – 2 nominations
“WILL & HARPER” – 2 nominations

“ALIEN: ROMULUS” – 1 nomination
“ANJULA” – 1 nomination
“A BEAR NAMED WOJTEK” – 1 nomination
“BEAUTIFUL MEN” – 1 nomination
“BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE” – 1 nomination
“BETTER MAN” – 1 nomination
“BLACK BOX DIARIES” – 1 nomination
“CHASING ROO” – 1 nomination
“A CRAB IN THE POOL” – 1 nomination
“DEATH BY NUMBERS” – 1 nomination
“A DIFFERENT MAN” – 1 nomination
“DOVECOAT” – 1 nomination
“FLOW” – 1 nomination
“I AM READY, WARDEN” – 1 nomination
“INSIDE OUT 2” – 1 nomination
“KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES” – 1 nomination
“KNEECAP” – 1 nomination
“THE LAST SHOWGIRL” – 1 nomination
“THE MAN WHO COULD NOT REMAIN SILENT” – 1 nomination
“THE MASTERPIECE” – 1 nomination
“MAKAYLA’S VOICE: A LETTER TO THE WORLD” 1 nomination
“MEMOIR OF A SNAIL” – 1 nomination
“NICKEL BOYS” – 1 nomination
“NO OTHER LAND” – 1 nomination
“ONCE UPON A TIME IN UKRAINE”- 1 nomination
“AN ORANGE FROM JAFFA” – 1 nomination
“PORCELAIN WAR” – 1 nomination
“SEPTEMBER 5” – 1 nomination
“THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT” – 1 nomination
“SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT”
“VERMIGLIO” – 1 nomination
“WALLACE AND GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL” – 1 nomination
“WANDER TO WONDER” – 1 nomination
“YUCK!” – 1 nomination