Let’s just dive head first into it. No, Emilia Perez having 13 Oscar nominations does not automatically mean that the Academy thinks it’s on the same level or better than The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Or a better film than Roma or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Perhaps many in the Academy are riding the high of Audiard’s daringly deranged rock opera and staying as offline as humanly possible, but the idea that nomination count has anything to do with how much the Academy liked a movie and not “how many categories does this movie qualify for and is that element strong enough to vote for in a top five?” is being exaggerated, as expected. Go down the years of the Oscars nominating films like American Hustle, The Irishman, and recently Killers of the Flower Moon, who all achieved 10 nominations… and zero wins.

Now, Emilia Perez is winning Oscars, that’s for certain. Saldana’s first ever nomination will undeniably be this year’s Best Supporting Actress win. “El Mal” will stomp over an absolutely limp set of Best Original Song nominees. But unless Emilia Perez pans out to be the favorite for Best Picture on Oscar night, it’s hard to tell if any smear campaigns, think-pieces, or just in general- time away from the film post-nomination voting, to guess where the Academy’s collective preference will be when final voting commences. Emilia Perez is a film that just happens to have bold direction, two passionately-liked performances, a gonzo screenplay, flashy editing, sumptuously lit camerawork, impressive makeup, expertly designed sound, a propulsive and unique score, and original songs. And it’s an international feature. It was always bound to be the nomination leader just based on “what it is”. The Brutalist could have the momentum it needs to win two or three weeks from now. Maybe a PGA win for Anora turns the tide? A BAFTA win for Conclave?

My thoughts on Emilia Perez have wavered ever since seeing it last November. I find myself defending the melodic choices of the soundtrack, a fan of Audiard’s go-for-broke throw-everything-at-the-wall way of shooting, and laughing at the absurdity in enjoyment more than ridicule. That said, its messaging and plotting is absolutely absurd. It starts with promise, but cracks apart instantly into nonsense, like trying to make an omelet that immediately tears so you give up and make scrambled eggs. Why spend three paragraphs just to discuss one movie? Because I now feel like I’ve covered half of the nomination discussion.

Moving on from what will is the biggest awards season villain since Crash, can we talk about the biggest surprise Best Picture nomination since… Extremely Loud? The Blind Side? But a much better surprise in every way? Yes, it seems that we won’t be going any year without an international film in Best Picture going forward but maybe we need to start making room for two? As the Academy expands more diversely and internationally, so do the nominations. It could be that extended voting due to the fires allowed people more time to catch up on Brazil’s I’m Still Here following Fernanda Torres’ Best Actress win at the Golden Globes, but enough passion was in the air for this film, something most pundits hadn’t even considered. Keep a close eye on this for International Feature against Emilia Perez, it may be a closer fight than it seems. Torres felt secure for a nomination post-beating Jolie at the Globes, but her film in Best Picture makes her seem like a threat for the win, even above Demi Moore, whose historic nomination was a win in of itself.

Yes, The Substance pulled off 5 Oscar nominations including Picture and Director, something that couldn’t even have been a possibility when it premiered at Cannes, nor when it was released last fall by MUBI. But the Hollywood element of The Substance might have been exactly the trick to make a connection with Academy voters, particularly women, with its message being ripe for any generation. There is no world that in any year before now, this film would have a single nomination period, even in Makeup & Hairstyling, but we have finally passed that threshold. This is 2025 now. Don’t underestimate any film, no matter what the content anymore. If it has passion, it’s a contender.

For every winner, there’s a loser, and unfortunately for Dune fans, we’re the losers. Yes, the film managed an obvious Best Picture nomination (in a field of 10, it had to), but the Academy decided to cool off on Dune Two compared to Dune One, much like they did The Two Towers after Fellowship. It’s gloriously intricate Bene Gesserit costumes were ignored in favor of Conclave‘s basic red cardinal robes and blue nun veils. Villenueve was ignored in Best Director for James Mangold’s pretty average coverage of concert sequences. Its thrilling feat of action editing turned away in favor of Wicked‘s… okay, I guess Wicked’s ability to be a 160 minute long half-told musical and still entertaining is impressive.

While I’m happy for first time nominees Sebastian Stan, Jeremy Strong, Guy Pearce, Isabella Rossellini, Keiran Culkin, Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon, Fernanda Torres, Yura Borisov, Monica Barbaro, Zoe Saldana, and Ariana Grande, I will continue to mourn the lack of Daniel Craig, who came… so close to his first nomination. Give this man his flowers. He’s been working his ass off for decades, gave his career-best performance in a daring Luca Guadagnino film (my thoughts on Challengers being totally snubbed don’t need to be stated), got a SAG nomination, he should be here! Keep writing this man great roles! Even if they are as challenging and singular as Queer. As Stephen McKinley Henderson says in Lady Bird, “they just didn’t understand it.”

It’s over a month until the Oscars and these predicitions will be altered, but given the nominees we have, here are my expectations for who will win, gun to head.

BEST PICTURE: Emilia Perez

BEST DIRECTOR: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

BEST ACTRESS: Fernada Torres, I’m Still Here

BEST ACTOR: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Keiran Culkin, A Real Pain

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Substance

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave

BEST EDITING: Emilia Perez

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: The Substance

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune Part Two

BEST SOUND: A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “El Mal”, Emilia Perez

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Emilia Perez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Other Land

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Anuja

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Beautiful Men

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: I Am Ready, Warden