The key to success when it comes to prognosticating the nominations for the Primetime Emmy Awards is fairly simple, understanding what the three to five most popular shows of the year are and shower them with nominations in every category, even if it means cutting some “what should be” obvious nominees. As much as a prestige television junkie as I am, I have consumed already most of this year’s crop and can see this year being incredibly kind to Severance, The Pitt, The Studio, Hacks, and The White Lotus. The White Lotus, though, coming off of its last two seasons that received nominations for basically everyone involved, has one leg forward and two legs back. One leg forward being it was by far the most watched and most popular season of the show to date, two legs backward being it was far more divisive and the competition it surrounds itself with is incredibly thick.

Popularity goes a long way with the television branch, moreso than positive reception as we saw with Game of Thrones annihilating awards season with its borderline-hated final season. The Last of Us faces a similar battle. Will its huge viewing numbers and love for the first season be enough to push it through for just nominations? Voters barely watch a year’s worth of television. They have their handful of shows they like, will be open to accepting a few newbies, but ultimately the consensus will be largely predictable.

In regards to the limited series and television categories, The Penguin, Adolescence, and Monsters feel like guarantees, taking up 2/3 or more of the nomination space in their field alone. Given the abundance of popular limited series every year, we are bound to have a big snub or one that sadly can’t seem to crack the five. Will it be Presumed Innocent, Say Nothing, or Alfonso Cuaron’s divisive Disclaimer? Sometimes even fingers-crossed passion picks that should get awards love just don’t (we still talk about you Twin Peaks: The Return.)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
ANDOR (Disney+)
THE LAST OF US (HBO)
PARADISE (Hulu)
THE PITT (Max)
SEVERANCE (Apple)
SLOW HORSES (Apple)
SQUID GAME (Netflix)
THE WHITE LOTUS (HBO)

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown, PARADISE
Diego Luna, ANDOR
Pedro Pascal, THE LAST OF US
Adam Scott, SEVERANCE
Noah Wyle, THE PITT

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kathy Bates, MATLOCK
Britt Lower, SEVERANCE
Elisabeth Moss, THE HANDMAID’S TALE
Bella Ramsey, THE LAST OF US
Kerri Russell, THE DIPLOMAT

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Patrick Ball, THE PITT
Walton Goggins, THE WHITE LOTUS
Jason Isaacs, THE WHITE LOTUS
Sam Rockwell, THE WHITE LOTUS
Patrick Schwarzenegger, THE WHITE LOTUS
Tramell Tillman, SEVERANCE
John Turturro, SEVERANCE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Carrie Coon, THE WHITE LOTUS
Taylor Deardon, THE PITT
Katherine LaNasa, THE PITT
Isabella Merced, THE LAST OF US
Parker Posey, THE WHITE LOTUS
Natasha Rothwell, THE WHITE LOTUS
Aimee Lou Wood, THE WHITE LOTUS

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Mackenzie Astin, THE PITT
Scott Glenn, THE WHITE LOTUS
Shawn Hatosy, THE PITT
Ben Mendelsohn, ANDOR
Joe Pantoliano, THE LAST OF US
Jeffrey Wright, THE LAST OF US

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jane Alexander, SEVERANCE
Gwendoline Christie, SEVERANCE
Kaitlyn Dever, THE LAST OF US
Catherine O’Hara, THE LAST OF US
Hilary Swank, YELLOWJACKETS
Merritt Weaver, SEVERANCE

BEST COMEDY SERIES
ABBOTT ELEMENTARY (ABC)
THE BEAR (FX)
HACKS (Max)
NOBODY WANTS THIS (Netflix)
ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING (Hulu)
THE REHEARSAL (HBO)
SHRINKING (Apple)
THE STUDIO (Apple)

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Ted Danson, A MAN ON THE INSIDE
Seth Rogen, THE STUDIO
Jason Segel, SHRINKING
Martin Short, ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
Jeremy Allen White, THE BEAR

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Kristen Bell, NOBODY WANTS THIS
Quinta Brunson, ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
Ayo Edebiri, THE BEAR
Natasha Lyonne, POKER FACE
Jean Smart, HACKS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Ike Barinholtz, THE STUDIO
Paul W. Downs, HACKS
Harrison Ford, SHRINKING
Marcello Hernandez, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, THE BEAR
Tyler James Williams, ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
Bowen Yang, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Liza Colon-Zayas, THE BEAR
Hannah Einbinder, HACKS
Abby Elliott, THE BEAR
Catherine O’Hara, THE STUDIO
Sheryl Lee Ralph, ABBOTT ELEMENTARY
Megan Stalter, HACKS
Jessica Williams, SHRINKING

BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Jon Bernthal, THE BEAR
Bradley Cooper, THE RIGHTEOUS GEMSTONES
Bryan Cranston, THE STUDIO
Ron Howard, THE STUDIO
Mike Myers, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
Martin Scorsese, THE STUDIO

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Jamie Lee Curtis, THE BEAR
Cynthia Erivo, POKER FACE
Zoe Kravitz, THE STUDIO
Melissa McCarthy, ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
Julianne Nicholson, HACKS
Maya Rudolph, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE

BEST LIMITED SERIES
ADOLESCENCE (Netflix)
DYING FOR SEX (Hulu)
MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY (Netflix)
THE PENGUIN (HBO)
PRESUMED INNOCENT (Apple)

BEST TV MOVIE
AM I OK? (Max)
BRIDGET JONES: MAD ABOUT THE BOY (Peacock)
MOUNTAINHEAD (HBO)
OUT OF MY MIND (Disney+)
REBEL RIDGE (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Nicholas Alexander Chavez, MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY
Colin Farrell, THE PENGUIN
Stephen Graham, ADOLESCENCE
Jake Gyllenhaal, PRESUMED INNOCENT
Cooper Koch, MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Cate Blanchett, DISCLAIMER
Ari Graynor, MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY
Cristin Millioti, THE PENGUIN
Lola Pettigrew, SAY NOTHING
Michelle Williams, DYING FOR SEX

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Javier Bardem, MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY
Owen Cooper, ADOLESCENCE
Rob Delaney, DYING FOR SEX
Rhenzy Feliz, THE PENGUIN
Peter Sarsgaard, PRESUMED INNOCENT
Ashley Walters, ADOLESCENCE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Erin Doherty, ADOLESCENCE
Ruth Negga, PRESUMED INNOCENT
Dierdre O’Connell, THE PENGUIN
Chloe Sevigny, MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY
Jenny Slate, DYING FOR SEX
Christine Tremarco, ADOLESCENCE

BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM
THE AMAZING RACE (CBS)
RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE (VH1)
SURVIVOR (CBS)
TOP CHEF (Bravo)
THE TRAITORS (Peacock)

BEST HOST FOR A REALITY SERIES
RuPaul Charles, RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE
Alan Cumming, THE TRAITORS
Kristen Kish, TOP CHEF
Jeff Probst, SURVIVOR
Queer Eye Hosts, QUEER EYE

BEST SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES
LAST WEEK TONIGHT WITH JOHN OLIVER (HBO)
SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE (NBC)

BEST TALK VARIETY SERIES
THE DAILY SHOW (Comedy Central)
JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE (ABC)
THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT (CBS)

BEST ANIMATED PROGRAM
ARCANE (Netflix)
BATMAN: CAPED CRUSADER (Prime Video)
BIG MOUTH (Netflix)
BOB’S BURGERS (FOX)
INVINCIBLE (Prime Video)