There is so much bad happening in the world, and in our country this week specifically, and with a few hours to kill and a 4th of July weekend on the horizon, I figured I would finally sit down and get my mind off of everything with indulging in one of my guilty pleasures: awards prognosticating. Before I lay it all out, which I anticipate doing as I type these words, let me go through a large batch of contenders and generally what I expect of them throughout the rest of the year and how well I believe they will do with the Motion Picture Academy. (Keep in mind, the year is still young and new contenders can literally come out of nowhere!! But this is what we’re looking at with what we’ve got.)

After the Hunt (dir. Luca Guadagnino): For what is said to be his most accessible film, with an explosive script, and Julia Roberts’ career best performance, this is looking to be Guadagnino’s best shot at the Oscar he’s ever gotten. My chips are all in for this one and for all three main performances.

Anemone (dir. Ronan Day-Lewis): This is only here because Day-Lewis is back from retirement. I don’t doubt Day-Lewis will be great in it, but the film’s quality will determine if he gets in. This could be just a small non-contender that Day-Lewis happens to be in for obvious reasons. RDL is unproven. If it’s great, DDL would be a easy bet, but this isn’t a Paul Thomas Anderson or Spielberg film.

Avatar: Fire & Ash (dir. James Cameron): At some point, these will just end up tech players right? With The Way of Water underperforming nomination-wise but still scoring a Best Picture nomination as the highest grossing film that year and a long-awaited follow-up to the biggest movie of all time, it’s as easy to say Cameron will do it again as it is to say he’s already peaked. If this is the best in the series so far, it’s in. If not, I expect this to just be a Visual Effects/Sound contender.

The Ballad of a Small Player (dir. Edward Berger): Berger’s third contender in a row, though it feels like if he couldn’t do it for Conclave or All Quiet, it’s unlikely he’ll get attention for a third time with something that seems smaller and less showy. Farrell could be an Actor contender though and the Adapted Screenplay race is begging for some juice.

Bugonia (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos): (cont’d from above) which is why I feel confident that Lanthimos’ new film will land in Adapted Screenplay. Though he’s an Oscars favorite, when he goes upsettingly weird like with Kinds of Kindness or Killing of a Sacred Deer, he’s been pushed aside. This isn’t written by him, and the whispers of this film’s buzz seem to indicate a really fascinating new entry from him, the premise does still feel like it may be in that “too upsetting/too extreme” category. He also can’t get in every time he puts out a film, so I’m reserving predicting Bugonia for much else (even though Plemons looks extraordinary). Something about the trailer looks like something I’m going to love, but not a film the Academy will take to (though what is an Oscar film anymore?)

Die, My Love (dir. Lynne Ramsay): The same can be said for Die, My Love, which premiered at Cannes to wildly mixed reactions, many claiming it’s just too damn weird to be an awards film. But Jennifer Lawrence has received nothing but raves and it may finally be her chance to return as a nominee after 10 long years. Ramsay has never been an “awards” filmmaker. The Oscars will have to bow to her first.

Frankenstein (dir. Guillermo del Toro): As said with Yorgos and Berger, I can’t expect a del Toro film to get into Best Picture just because it’s del Toro. Now, after Nosferatu doing far better for Robert Eggers at Oscars than his previous movies but still missing Best Picture, there is still a shot for Netflix’s Frankenstein to be the awards darling monster movie of the year. But something tells me Netflix will do this dirty. Audiences could maybe be turned off if this is the more “sweet and sorrowful” film del Toro has been pitching and not a traditional horror film. The trailer also plays a bit… artificial for a GDT film? More CG-heavy? It may just be a tech player. But we’ll see!

Hamnet (dir. Chloe Zhao): I have no idea what to do with this film. Test screenings have been inconsistent, but Zhao is a brilliant director. It’s one of those “if it’s good, it’ll likely get in with Buckley in Actress/Costumes/Score”. But also I look at that ghost town of an Adapted Screenplay race and I think if it gets in there with a handful of other nominations, it could be Focus Features’ big player, enough to get in. But it all hinges on one thing: will it be good?

Highest 2 Lowest (dir. Spike Lee): Somewhat mixed reactions out of Cannes and an August release will probably keep this Apple film out of the race, but if a second wind of reactions steer more positive and it’s a hit on the streamer, there’s the Adapted Screenplay race AND the Best Original Song race.

It Was Just An Accident (dir. Jafar Panahi): Winning the Palme at Cannes was huge for this film. Big enough that I feel pretty certain this will be one of our likely two international films in Best Picture and Panahi feels like a real Director’s Branch pick. Will it qualify for International Feature? Depends which country decides to claim it, if any, but even if it misses International Feature, ala Anatomy of a Fall, it feels certain for some Top 8 category attention.

Jay Kelly (dir. Noah Baumbach): If this is a great Baumbach film, like Marriage Story, this will be a shoo-in. It’s likely Netflix’s biggest contender and boasts an insanely likable cast. Plus, we’re all hoping Sandler can get that nomination he deserved in 2020 (and other years prior, IMO).

Kiss of the Spider Woman (dir. Bill Condon): Mixed reviews at Sundance, but there was some passion for this from some top critics. Lopez has buzz, but will a mostly-singing performance be enough for the actor’s branch? Safe bet is it being just a Costume/Production Design/Makeup nominee as a film that glorifies old Hollywood musicals.

Marty Supreme (dir. Josh Safdie): A starry Timothee Chalamet-led comedic biopic coming out at Christmas from A24 and a Safdie brother? It’s one of the buzziest movies of the year and something just rings so confident about this film’s chances. Chalamet also coming back for Round Two in a row in the Actor category for which he narrowly missed this year.

One Battle After Another (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson): Who the f knows how this will turn out reception-wise, but even Inherent Vice, PTA’s worst-reviewed film on RT, was still fresh and landed a Screenplay nomination. If this isn’t a hit at the box office, critics and PTA’s name-brand may pull this through. If it is a hit, it’s a guarantee. It seems to be a huge swing for the fences and will likely have passion from a lot of film-obsessed/PTA-obsessed Academy members. Penn seems to have the most buzz in Best Supporting Actor out of the film’s cast, but I could see a Benicio surprise for his more comedic role as opposed to Penn’s nastier villain.

The Secret Agent (dir. Kleber Mendonca Filho): What I’ve learned recently is “don’t underestimate Brazil”. If they’re passionate about this film, it will make a dent somewhere this year. Moura in Actor seems like a solid bet and it could also factor in International Feature and Screenplay. It may need to play a couple more festivals to get an extra boost, but there is a real shot.

Sentimental Value (dir. Joachim Trier): Like After the Hunt, this is a slam-dunk Best Picture nomination, with an ensemble cast likely getting their first nominations (Skarsgard so overdue, he might win). Unlike ATH, this has actually been seen and showered with raves. The passion for this will be extreme when it finally releases. It may be THE critic’s choice of the field.

Sinners (dir. Ryan Coogler): I didn’t even consider this an Oscar film after leaving the theater originally and now here I am thinking it may not only be the easy nomination leader… it may break the record, especially with a brand new category it seems a lock for (Best Casting). Before compiling my list, I figured it would probably be a Barbie-esque 8 nominations. When I finished, I had to pump back 16 nominations to a more reasonable 14. This will likely be the most popular choice of the field and so far it’s the only film released this year to be a guaranteed Best Picture nomination.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (dir. Scott Cooper): While the trailer (and the awful new title) promises a more conventional film, that’s not likely to be what Cooper delivers given his track record. Cooper is a looooow-key filmmaker, almost to a fault, and the only time he’s made a film the Academy took to, it was Crazy Heart, a film that won 2 Oscars for Actor and Song, but the film was ignored in the first year of 10 Picture nominees. Since then, Cooper hasn’t made a film that accessible and continues to not do so. Like that film, though, I think Jeremy Allen White is a real good bet to win Best Actor (he does his own singing!) and Springsteen is said to be providing an original song, which could allow him to Elton John for Rocketman his way to another Oscar. There has been a lot of prediction-buzz for Jeremy Strong to pull off a consecutive nomination, but truly, I just dooooon’t see it. Not for that role. Roy Cohn was a nomination-worthy role and performance. Strong playing the guy that just is there to say “you don’t know the real Bruce” (if the trailer is any indication) just seems like… a basic/boring side role in the Springsteen biopic. But time will tell! If the film is great, I’ll eat my words.

Wake Up Dead Man (dir. Rian Johnson): Every Knives Out film has bagged a Screenplay nomination, could this entry finally crack Best Picture? It features maybe the best impressive ensemble so far (Glenn Close seems to be a real contender just looking at set photos of her). It’s a darker tone. It’s an awards-friendly release like the last two. Netflix will push whatever contender for them proves to be the most liked. Maybe I just have blind faith, but I do think this could be the one to do it, especially riding off a Close nomination in Supporting Actress and a Casting/Screenplay nomination.

Wicked: For Good (dir. Jon M. Chu): With what I’ve learned with big budget sequels to Oscar juggernaut blockbusters (Avatar and Dune) is that you slice the nomination total in half, even if the film is better. I’m putting my foot down on Erivo and Grande not getting in. They will be contenders, but two actors repeating consecutive nominations for the same performances? I need to see it to believe it. I just have a hard time seeing the Academy being that lazy, even if the performances are worthy. Actors nominated for the same character has obviously happened, but sparingly, and only with significant distance between films. Never the literal year after. This isn’t the Emmys. Erivo’s field is seemingly less competitive, so she could pull off another nomination. I think Grande has had her moment, even if her role is now more beefed up than in the original show. And sight unseen, but content-wise based off the musical, I don’t expect this second half to be a better film. Not even close. It may have enough popular support to still get in. It’s a guaranteed box office hit and will play like gangbusters this holiday season, it even leans into the Wizard of Oz narrative which should delight Academy members, but I’m remaining pessimistic with this one until proven otherwise.

Okay? Ready?

Here are my predictions for the 99th Academy Awards:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

“AFTER THE HUNT” (Amazon/MGM)
“HAMNET” (Focus Features)
“IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT” (NEON)
“JAY KELLY” (Netflix)
“MARTY SUPREME” (A24)
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER” (Warner Bros.)
“SENTIMENTAL VALUE” (NEON)
“SINNERS” (Warner Bros.)
“WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY” (Netflix)
“WICKED: FOR GOOD” (Universal)

BEST DIRECTOR

Ryan Coogler | “SINNERS”
Luca Guadagnino | “AFTER THE HUNT”
Jafar Panahi | “IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT”
Josh Safdie | “MARTY SUPREME”
Joachim Trier | “SENTIMENTAL VALUE”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Timothee Chalamet | “MARTY SUPREME”
George Clooney | “JAY KELLY”
Michael B. Jordan | “SINNERS”
Wagner Moura | “THE SECRET AGENT”
Jeremy Allen White | “SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Jessie Buckley | “HAMNET”
Jennifer Lawrence | “DIE, MY LOVE”
Renate Reinsve | “SENTIMENTAL VALUE”
Julia Roberts | “AFTER THE HUNT”
Tessa Thompson | “HEDDA”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Miles Caton | “SINNERS”
Andrew Garfield | “AFTER THE HUNT”
Sean Penn | “ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
Adam Sandler | “JAY KELLY”
Stellan Skarsgard | “SENTIMENTAL VALUE”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Emily Blunt | “THE SMASHING MACHINE”
Glenn Close | “WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY”
Ayo Edebiri | “AFTER THE HUNT”
Elle Fanning | “SENTIMENTAL VALUE”
Teyana Taylor | “ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“AFTER THE HUNT”
“IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT”
“JAY KELLY”
“MARTY SUPREME”
“SENTIMENTAL VALUE”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“THE BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER”
“BUGONIA”
“HAMNET”
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
“WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY”

BEST CASTING

“AFTER THE HUNT”
“MARTY SUPREME”
“SENTIMENTAL VALUE”
“SINNERS”
“WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

“THE LEFT-HANDED GIRL”
“THE SECRET AGENT”
“SENTIMENTAL VALUE”
“SOUND OF FALLING”
“TWO PROSECUTORS”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“2000 METERS TO ADRIIVKA”
“APOCALYPSE IN THE TROPICS”
“DEAF PRESIDENT NOW!”
“THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR”
“SEEDS”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“ARCO”
“ELIO”
“A MAGNIFICENT LIFE”
“NE ZHA 2”
“ZOOTOPIA 2”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“FRANKENSTEIN”
“HAMNET”
“MARTY SUPREME”
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
“SINNERS”

BEST EDITING

“AFTER THE HUNT”
“MARTY SUPREME”
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
“SENTIMENTAL VALUE”
“SINNERS”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“AVATAR: FIRE & ASH”
“FRANKENSTEIN”
“KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN”
“SINNERS”
“WICKED: FOR GOOD”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“FRANKENSTEIN”
“HAMNET”
“KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN”
“SINNERS”
“WICKED: FOR GOOD”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

“FRANKENSTEIN”
“KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN”
“THE SMASHING MACHINE”
“SINNERS”
“WICKED: FOR GOOD”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“AVATAR: FIRE & ASH”
“FRANKENSTEIN”
“MICKEY 17”
“MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE- THE FINAL RECKONING”
“WICKED: FOR GOOD”

BEST SOUND

“AVATAR: FIRE & ASH”
“F1”
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
“SINNERS”
“WARFARE”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

“AFTER THE HUNT”
“FRANKENSTEIN”
“HAMNET”
“ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER”
“SINNERS”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS” | “Relentless”
“SINNERS” | “I Lied to You”
“SINNERS” | “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”
“SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE” | “TBA”
“WICKED: FOR GOOD” | “TBA”

NOMINATION TALLY:
Sinners – 14 nominations
After the Hunt – 9 nominations
Sentimental Value – 9 nominations
One Battle After Another – 8 nominations
Marty Supreme – 7 nominations
Frankenstein – 6 nominations
Hamnet – 6 nominations
Wicked: For Good – 6 nominations
Jay Kelly – 4 nominations
Avatar: Fire & Ash – 3 nominations
It Was Just An Accident – 3 nominations
Kiss of the Spider Woman – 3 nominations
The Secret Agent – 2 nominations
The Smashing Machine – 2 nominations
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere – 2 nominations
2000 Meters to Adriivka – 1 nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics – 1 nomination
Arco – 1 nomination
The Ballad of a Small Player – 1 nomination
Bugonia – 1 nomination
Deaf President Now! – 1 nomination
Diane Warren: Relentless – 1 nomination
Die, My Love – 1 nomination
Elio – 1 nomination
F1 – 1 nomination
Hedda – 1 nomination
The Left-Handed Girl – 1 nomination
A Magnificent Life – 1 nomination
Mickey 17- 1 nomination
Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning – 1 nomination
Ne Zha 2 – 1 nomination
The Perfect Neighbor – 1 nomination
Seeds – 1 nomination
Sound of Falling – 1 nomination
Two Prosecutors – 1 nomination
Warfare – 1 nomination
Zootopia 2 – 1 nomination

WIN TALLY:
Sinners – 6 wins
Sentimental Value – 4 wins
Frankenstein – 3 wins
After the Hunt – 1 win
Avatar: Fire & Ash – 1 win
Deaf President Now! – 1 win
Marty Supreme – 1 win
One Battle After Another – 1 win
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere – 1 win
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – 1 win
Zootopia 2 – 1 win

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!