FILM AND TELEVISION REVIEWS, AWARDS DISCUSSION, & OTHER GENERAL MUSINGS

Oscars 2026 Nomination Predictions (AUGUST 2025)

Between my July Predictions (read here) and now, we have not only received trailers to huge, new heavy hitters (Jay Kelly, Rental Family, Avatar: Fire and Ash, After the Hunt, etc.) but we have also gotten lineups for upcoming festivals such as TIFF and NYFF, and Venice. A few films rising to the top of our minds include:

Rental Family: Searchlight has a stealth, potenial TIFF Audience Award winner with Academy Award winner Brendan Fraser starring as a man in Tokyo who begins to form huge bonds with the families he is hired as a stand-in actor for. Word on the street is this will be big, despite how much Film Twitter will have their knives out for it for various reasons.

The Testament of Ann Lee: Mona Fastvold returns from writing The Brutalist with her husband-and-work partner Brady Corbet to deliver a 70mm-shot musical about the Shakers religious sect starring Amanda Seyfried. This could be on the same level as The Brutalist, or it could prove too bizarre for the Academy, but Seyfried feels like a safe bet to crack a dent in the Best Actress category.

No Other Choice: Park Chan-Wook returns after his brilliant Decision to Leave. Distributed by NEON, who has every contender under the sun this year, and coming in hog-swinging with a glorious and visually dynamic trailer, whether this is finally his long overdue recognition from Oscar or not, every film fan should be foaming at the mouth to see this.

Nouvelle Vague: Debuting at Cannes to a gently positive reception, Richard Linklater’s one of two films this year has secured awards friendly release dates both theatrical and streaming on Netflix and will no doubt be blessed with a healthy campaign, specifically in International Feature should France accept it.

Blue Moon: Speaking of Linklater, Blue Moon debuted in Berlin with particular praise for actor Andrew Scott. A charming trailer dropped for this Rodgers and Hammerstein-centered biopic which may not be big enough (or centered on the magic of cinema quite like Nouvelle Vague) to nab Oscar nominations, but could get a critics push for Scott or its screenplay.

Jay Kelly: A film that seemed like an obvious nominee based on its distributor and pedigree, but Netflix has started their campaign early, clearly aware this is their show-horse in the race. Baumbach is overdue and may finally not only be delivering his big opus, but also Netflix’s overdue win in Best Picture. Any film that can guarantee Adam Sandler an Oscar nomination shouldn’t be underestimated.

BEST PICTURE
1. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
2. Sentimental Value (NEON)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
5. Rental Family (Searchlight)
6. Marty Supreme (A24)
7. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
8. It Was Just An Accident (NEON)
9. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
10. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century Studios)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Noah Baumbach : Jay Kelly
2. Joachim Trier : Sentimental Value
3. Ryan Coogler : Sinners
4. Luca Guadagnino : After the Hunt
5. Jafar Panahi : It Was Just an Accident
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1. George Clooney : Jay Kelly
2. Jeremy Allen White : Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. Timothee Chalamet : Marty Supreme
4. Michael B. Jordan : Sinners
5. Brendan Fraser : Rental Family
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Julia Roberts : After the Hunt
2. Renate Reinsve : Sentimental Value
3. Amanda Seyfried : The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Jessie Buckley : Hamnet
5. Tessa Thompson : Hedda
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Stellan Skarsgard : Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler : Jay Kelly
3. Akira Emoto : Rental Family
4. Andrew Garfield : After the Hunt
5. Sean Penn : One Battle After Another
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Ayo Edebiri : After the Hunt
2. Elle Fanning : Sentimental Value
3. Glenn Close : Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Emily Blunt : The Smashing Machine
5. Wunmi Mosaku : Sinners
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Jay Kelly
2. Sentimental Value
3. After the Hunt
4. Rental Family
5. Marty Supreme
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. One Battle After Another
2. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
3. The Ballad of a Small Player
4. Bugonia
5. Nouvelle Vague
BEST CASTING
1. Sinners
2. Rental Family
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sentimental Value
5. After the Hunt
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. Sentimental Value
2. Nouvelle Vague
3. The Secret Agent
4. Two Prosecutors
5. My Father’s Shadow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2,000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics
5. Cutting Through Rocks
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Ne Zha 2
4. A Magnificent Life
5. K-Pop Demon Hunters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Sinners
2. The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Frankenstein
4. Jay Kelly
5. Hamnet
BEST EDITING
1. Sinners
2. Jay Kelly
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. One Battle After Another
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire & Ash
5. The Testament of Ann Lee
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Superman
5. Sinners
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: Fire & Ash
2. Frankenstein
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
4. Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning
5. Superman
BEST SOUND
1. Sinners
2. F1
3. Avatar: Fire & Ash
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Warfare
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Sinners
2. Jay Kelly
3. Frankenstein
4. The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Bugonia
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Sinners : “I Lied to You”
2. Wicked: For Good : “TBA”
3. Diane Warren: Relentless : “Relentless”
4. Sinners : “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere : “TBA”

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!

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Jakob Kolness

Minnesota Film Critics Association Member. Graduate of Film Studies, writer, novelist, filmmaker.

CURRENT 2026 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
“Bugonia”

“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”

“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”**
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

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