We are now post-Golden Globes and Critics Choice, pre-shortlists and SAG, and this will be my final nomination predictions before my actual FINAL-FINAL predictions in January. November to December has been whiplash given all of the films now have been seen and allowed to marinate. Some declarations made in the last post have been completely uprooted and reexamined. As always, discussions will be divided into film by film alphabetically and any film not mentioned (Hamnet, One Battle After Another, It Was Just An Accident) is due to its never-changing status in the race.
Avatar: Fire and Ash: This one was always a wait and see. A massive juggernaut blockbuster threequel whose previous two films got into Best Picture. While it has been screened finally and reviews are still embargoed, my thoughts on the film and its awards chances can be summed up to… I really don’t see it as a Best Picture nominee. This is just a tech contender and there is even a world where, like Avengers Endgame (the almost-highest grossing film ever made), only gets Visual Effects.
Bugonia: Getting in at Critics Choice and Golden Globes was a given. It’s what it got in over what didn’t that surprises me with this film. With many contenders dropping off and a Screenplay nomination looking likely, Bugonia could sneak into Best Picture after all with just one or two above-the-line nominations (like A Serious Man, Past Lives, Nickel Boys). I still don’t know what to do with Emma Stone yet. She doesn’t have the passion of other contenders in her group, but she is getting in places. It’s not as much a standout, slam-dunk nomination as The Favourite or Poor Things. She could get in everywhere and miss or she could kick out someone like Chase Infiniti, who voters may feel could wait for her time down the road. Stone is beloved, but the film doesn’t need her nomination to get in necessarily and the One Battle love is going to be titanic.
Jay Kelly: Landing on Netflix with light appreciation but no passion, it’s on the outside looking in. Frankenstein is a lock, Train Dreams will have the #1 votes, and there is much less a world where Netflix (especially given their current questionable status within the community after the acquisition of Warner Bros) gets three Best Picture nominations. The only studio this year that has the luck to pull that off (and maybe more) is NEON. That said, Sandler’s performance is tremendous and if between him and Elordi, I do feel like the Academy will finally be nice and give him his flowers.
Marty Supreme: No real change to its Picture chances, but if Timmy is the real deal in Actor, there is a small stat since The Father (2020) that a Lead Actor win and pulled in a Supporting performance either as a mainstay or as a surprise coat-tail. It’s happened plenty too in further years back like Crazy Heart (2009) managing Gyllenhaal a shock nomination alongside Bridges’ win. That last spot in Supporting Actress seems to be fight between Wunmi Mosaku (who could be pulled in with Sinners support and Jordan in Actor as I had predicted earlier) and Ariana Grande (losing steam). But I’m starting to suspect it’s going to be “back in real movies after a long break” Gwyneth Paltrow.
The Perfect Neighbor: In the Documentary branch, to be the precursor frontrunner is a death sentence. Can’t explain it, don’t understand it, but they are ruthless on Oscar nomination morning. Beware your status, The Perfect Neighbor.
No Other Choice: Also an outside looking in contender, I still feel like the International branch will continue their dismissal of Park Chan-wook, but this always felt like a film that the Academy at large would appreciate more than the smaller voting block. It’s only real issue is it’s clearly the fourth place NEON contender and can NEON get four in? Would it be the coolest Best Picture lineup this century?
The Secret Agent: The support for this thing seems to be unwavering. As the larger tentpole contenders fall, NEON’s international films rise. Votes for Wagner Moura will be aplenty and as more catch up with this film and resonate with its historical and cultural importance, it could manage more than just a Best Picture nomination. We’re still looking at Director, Screenplay, Editing, etc.
Sirat: Surprising with Score and Sound mentions throughout the season, there is a world in which Sirat manages one of these two nominations, even if the International branch can’t make room for it in the Feature category. It is a tough watch and one with no satisfying conclusion, but the audible elements of the movie are praise-worthy.
Song Sung Blue: I have seen this movie finally and I must say… congrats on your Golden Globe nomination Kate Hudson. She’s very good but it really is just a “lucky to be a Golden Globe nominee” contender.
Train Dreams: I do believe it will crack the Best Picture 10, but I’m mostly focused on if Edgerton can get in. It seems Hawke, Jordan, and Moura may be too strong to make room for Joel. Regardless, Edgerton’s performance is one of the best of the year and it will be sad to see him not included to receive his first nomination.
Weapons: I sincerely apologize for not including this film in prior predictions. It always just came down to Amy Madigan (and maybe the makeup). But Madigan always felt like a fun critics winner during precursors (and of course, she has been winning) that didn’t crack the televised awards. A performance the Academy wouldn’t take seriously. But Madigan has a supreme advantage: there is a noticeable lack of serious veteran actress performances in a category that thrives off of veteran actresses. Her name has been so loud in this conversation that not only does she now seem like a no-brainer nominee, she has pulled Weapons into being discussed with the same notoriety as a film like Sinners, a unexpected type of genre movie that resonates with the industry.
Wicked: For Good: I should have known the reactions coming out of early premiere screenings were just gaslighting hyperbole. While it’s a film I do respect and like, it’s pretty obvious that it’s a big step down from the original and it’s impossible to see it actually getting the #1 votes it needs to secure a spot. In the old voting system, where ranking didn’t matter, it probably would get in just from its status alone with enough mentions to qualify, but like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, it’s nobody’s favorite film of the year, at least likely not enough to matter. PGA and SAG may bite, but when it comes down to the wire, the general consensus may have already set in that this just wasn’t it. Tech nominations will be guaranteed and Ariana Grande is not completely out, but her category is starting to thicken out. Perhaps my gut instinct on two performers getting consecutive nominations for the same performance being highly unlikely will prove right all along. It’s not just a matter of “we nominated that already, make some room”, also in Grande’s case, “if it doesn’t seem like we’re going to actually award them with a win, then what’s the point in nominating them at all?” Grande’s awards chances seemed to hinge on being a makeup win for last year, but this year, not even critics’ groups are biting. A feeling of “oh well…” settling in.
BEST PICTURE
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Hamnet (Focus Features)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Sentimental Value (NEON)
6. It Was Just An Accident (NEON)
7. Frankenstein (Netflix)
8. Train Dreams (Netflix)
9. The Secret Agent (NEON)
10. Bugonia (Focus Features)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Paul Thomas Anderson : One Battle After Another
CURRENT 2026 OSCAR PREDICTIONS “Bugonia” “Frankenstein” “Hamnet” “It Was Just An Accident” “Marty Supreme” “One Battle After Another” “The Secret Agent” “Sentimental Value” “Sinners” “Train Dreams”
jakobtalksfilm.com 
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