Let’s just get into it.

BEST PICTURE
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Hamnet (Focus Features)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Sentimental Value (NEON)
6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
7. Train Dreams (Netflix)
8. The Secret Agent (NEON)
9. Bugonia (Focus Features)
10. It Was Just An Accident (NEON)

ALT: F1

Some shuffled around, but these are my last month’s predictions and I feel very settled with them. Yes, It Was Just An Accident has lost a lot of momentum as The Secret Agent‘s has risen, but that doesn’t mean I’m kicking it out. PGA nominations suggest Weapons and F1 could play into this still, F1 being an audience favorite with guaranteed tech nominations to support a Best Picture nomination. Hell, there’s a real shot that Sorry, Baby could get boosted into the 10 with Julia Roberts singing its praises at the Globes right before nomination voting began. Thankfully, if any of those films make it in, it would be a pleasant surprise. This has been a great year for films, particularly international films, and my guess is given how international the Academy has gotten, that non-English language films will continue to do incredibly well with #1 votes.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Paul Thomas Anderson : One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler: Sinners
3. Jafar Panahi : It Was Just An Accident
4. Joachim Trier : Sentimental Value
5. Kleber Mendonça Filho : The Secret Agent

ALT: Chloe Zhao : Hamnet

To say this isn’t the category giving me the most stress would be a lie. I’ve had to think about this to the point of a stress migraine. The only guaranteed nominee here is PTA. This is also the category that is most heavily influenced by the international half of its branch. It’s tough to kick out Zhao and Safdie, both of whom received DGA nominations, but I’m choosing to bet on the NEON directors. Mendonça’s film might win International Feature, Panahi’s narrative and career is overwhelming, and Trier’s built such a long, concrete reputation and does the most “actor’s directing” of any film this year. It’s most likely not all three make it in, maybe it is just one. But the last time the Academy went all in on populist choices was 2018, the year Guillermo del Toro won, who also received a DGA nomination this year.

The wise money is on Zhao getting in (she seems safe as can be) and while she is the only female director that stands a shot this year, of the handful of female directors to get in, only Jane Campion was nominated more than once and her nominations were nearly 30 years apart. Let me be clear: Zhao coming off a Best Director win only five years ago with another nomination would be a positive sign that the Director’s branch continues to make room for female voices. In 2014, they couldn’t even be bothered to nominate Kathryn Bigelow for a larger directorial effort in Zero Dark Thirty than her prior Best Director win for The Hurt Locker. Nor Greta Gerwig for Little Women or Barbie.

Truly there is no reason for me to predict a Zhao miss, but this is one of those years that I have a gut feeling like in 2013 that the Director’s branch will be a little ruthless and itching to finally anoint some overdue international voices. I’m so tempted to throw in Josh Safdie in here given how maximalist and showy Marty Supreme‘s direction is, but I do feel like they’ll make Safdie wait seeing as how this is his first solo directing effort. Make no mistake, this is an 8-horse race and three of these directors (Guillermo included) are going to get kicked in the pants. Not to mention, there’s a real possibility that Oliver Laxe is the spoiler international nominee here for Sirāt.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Timothee Chalamet : Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio : One Battle After Another
3. Ethan Hawke : Blue Moon
4. Wagner Moura : The Secret Agent
5. Michael B. Jordan : Sinners

ALT: Jesse Plemons : Bugonia

I think these five are pretty concrete with SAG nominee Plemons getting the boot in favor of Golden Globe winner Moura. Joel Edgerton could really pull up and surprise given the film feels secure in Best Picture, but Plemons’ SAG nomination was a big leg up and he’s likely to score a BAFTA nomination as well. Plus, Bugonia‘s precursor run proved surprisingly successful and he and his female costar stand very similar shots at being recognized.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Jessie Buckley : Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne : If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve : Sentimental Value
4. Chase Infiniti : One Battle After Another
5. Emma Stone : Bugonia

ALT: Kate Hudson : Song Sung Blue

Buckley is taking it all the way, but it is so cool that Rose Byrne (someone who felt like a pipe-dream nomination for this back in January of 2025) is practically guaranteed. Infiniti has beat the odds, upgraded to Lead status, and getting in everywhere, aided by the fact that One Battle is beloved and will get a ton of votes in every category it’s eligible in. Reinsve missed the SAG nomination, but so did every international film performance. I’m going to chalk this (as well as the supporting nominees) up to the fact that SAG voters are becoming more bland, with ballots being contributed heavily by voters (social media influencers included) who don’t feel compelled to see “subtitled films” or non-popular fare. The Guild awards in general this year have felt exclusively American/English-language, which is bizarre given how the amount of international contenders. They do matter to a degree in terms of voter overlap and exposure, but we may be leaning into a future where the Academy has more similar taste with the Golden Globes. Hudson getting the SAG nomination does mean she’s the next best possibility, no matter what the Academy thinks of the actual film. Seyfried could shock but her film feels completely buried after its limited theatrical run and blanking with Oscar shortlists.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Stellan Skarsgard: Sentimental Value
2. Benicio del Toro : One Battle After Another
3. Jacob Elordi : Frankenstein
4. Sean Penn : One Battle After Another
5. Paul Mescal : Hamnet

ALT: Delroy Lindo : Sinners

I gotta hand it to Elordi. I doubted him for a while, but he may end up winning half of these televised precursor awards. He’s probably 2nd most likely to win among the five, but with the One Battle love and the immense love for this character, Benicio del Toro is probably the safest nominee in this category. Skarsgard is #1 because as I said before, SAG was a fluke. His Globe win and loving and charming speech should keep him ahead of the pack. Miles Caton got the SAG nomination, but part of me thinks if there is an out-of-nowhere surprise, it’s Delroy Lindo, taking his spot the same way veterans Judd Hirsch/Judi Dench took the place of their younger costars Paul Dano/Caitriona Balfe, despite the odds. Lindo is memorably overdue for a career nomination and there may be a groundswell of support to get him in.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Teyana Taylor : One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan : Weapons
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas : Sentimental Value
4. Wunmi Mosaku : Sinners
5. Odessa A’zion : Marty Supreme

ALT: Elle Fanning : Sentimental Value

One Battle feels like it needs an acting win, and while Madigan may win more awards for her batshit performance, in the end, Taylor may be the representative for her juggernaut film. But it will be a photo-finish. Mosaku, as I predicted early in the year, seems likely for her first nomination. Her and A’zion feel right in getting nominated alongside their lead actor co-star, neither of which feel right without bringing a costar along with them. A’zion, much like Monica Barbaro last year, seems catapulted into the category thanks to a surprise SAG nomination in a Timothee Chalamet film and boosted by the film’s popular late release. That said, there could be a switcheroo and Gwyneth Paltrow could fill this spot. Watching Sentimental Value, despite Lilleaas overshadowing her in terms of awards success, it is hard to see Elle Fanning (who’s so well liked, worked with everyone in the business her whole life) miss yet again for a performance that the acting branch should devour. But Sentimental Value can survive with just one Supporting Actress nomination and it seems to be Lilleaas’. As I’ve said all year, Grande will get in precursors but ultimately miss the nomination due to her film’s declining reception and the fact that “we nominated her for this already.” If Grande does get in, I will admit defeat, but people all year have really not considered how unprecedented her (and Erivo, when she stood a chance) getting in again for this would be. There has never been a back-to-back consecutive nomination for the same character from the same performer, and there likely will never be.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Ryan Coogler: Sinners
2. Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt : Sentimental Value
3. Jafar Panahi : It Was Just An Accident
4. Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein : Marty Supreme
5. Eva Victor : Sorry, Baby

ALT: Weapons : Zach Cregger

It feels right that this will be Coogler’s first win, the most “bold, visionary idea” in a category that favors “bold, visionary ideas”. Blue Moon and The Secret Agent are still in play here, but to predict a lone Screenplay nominee (as it is wise to every year), it must be mentioned again that Julia Roberts’ shoutout to Eva Victor was huge and her vocal influence has blessed many a surprise Oscar nomination. This is where Sorry, Baby stands the best shot at recognition and the writer’s branch have embraced celebrated low-budget indies before. If not Sorry, Baby, and you’re predicting Amy Madigan in Weapons to win her category, it would help a ton for her to be supported with a nomination or two in the Picture and or Screenplay categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Paul Thomas Anderson : One Battle After Another
2. Chloe Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell : Hamnet
3. Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar : Train Dreams
4. Will Tracy : Bugonia
5. Park Chan-wook : No Other Choice

ALT: Frankenstein : Guillermo del Toro

The fact that Wake Up Dead Man feels unlikely is a shame, and odd given its prior nominated installments. Frankenstein is the wisest bet, but it screenplay is considered the “weak” aspect of the film, and still can survive a Best Picture nomination with a boatload of techs and Elordi. But as said above, every year there is at least one “lone” Screenplay nominee in either or both categories, so to play it safe, I am predicting a lone nominee for both Screenplay races and betting on Park Chan-wook to get his first ever long overdue nomination.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. Sentimental Value : Norway
2. The Secret Agent : Brazil
3. It Was Just An Accident : France
4. Sirāt : Spain
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab : Tunisia

ALT: No Other Choice: South Korea

Speaking of Park, I do think all five NEON films can’t fill the category and Sirāt has proved to be a shock favorite of the year amongst awards season voters and even the Academy, who included it on a handful of shortlists, including Best Casting. The last spot is likely to go to The Voice of Hind Rajab, due to its important subject matter, stunning depiction of a tragic event, and the sheer amount of celebrity power backing it, with the likes of Brad Pitt and Joaquin Phoenix as producers. If there is another big-name-backed International film still putting up a fighting chance, it’s Left-Handed Girl, co-written by Sean Baker. No Other Choice, though, feels like a nominee and would be in a weaker year. If it truly is the NEON-Five, what a year for that company.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. 2,000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
2. Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
3. Cover-Up (Netflix)
4. My Undesirable Friends- Part 1: Last Air in Moscow (Marminchilla)
5. Cutting Through Rocks (Gandom Films)

ALT: The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)

The Perfect Neighbor should be #1, but I’m always so hesitant to predict the “frontrunner” in this category because the absolutely ruthless Doc Branch is infamous for snubbing favorites, especially ones deemed audience-popular. In fact, a few films that seem likely such as The Alabama Solution and Come See Me in the Good Light may miss out in favor of the Doc Branch’s love for international and global-crisis-centered subjects. Mr. Nobody Against Putin stands a good shot, but Andriivka and critical darling My Undesirable Friends may take up too much space for another Ukraine War-centered doc.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. K Pop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney)
3. Arco (NEON)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
5. Elio (Disney/Pixar)

ALT: Scarlet (Studio CHIZU)

What needs to be said? K Pop is taking this with ease and practically no competition in a dire year for animated films. Yes, anime films really stood out this year in terms of critical reception and box office performance but films like Demon Slayer and Chainsaw Man require a knowledge of the television source material to even comprehend and aren’t backed by the strength of Studio Ghibli or Toho. If there is an anime film to break through, it may be Annie-Award nominee Scarlet.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CASTING
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Frankenstein

ALT: Weapons

The top 4 in this category feel locked as hell with the fifth slot being the wild card. Truly there is no precedent with this category given its brand new. I’m tempted to place in something that has a great “casting story” like Weapons or Sirāt, or a uniquely-assembled ensemble like The Secret Agent, but I’m stumped. Sentimental Value should be a nominee because of how good its core cast is, but this isn’t exactly a “best performances” category (at least, we don’t think so). So I’m finding a spot in the middle and choosing Frankenstein, which is a SAG Ensemble nominee and has a great casting story (Elordi, the film’s secret weapon, joining the film right before filming began after Andrew Garfield’s departure).

BEST EDITING
1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. F1
5. Sentimental Value

ALT: The Secret Agent

Another case of the top 4 feeling secure with a wildcard 5th nominee. I’ve seen a lot of predictions shift Frankenstein’s way, but I would argue that film’s structure is hindered by a lumbering pace. Hamnet seems like a case of a lack of “showy” editing. The real surprise would be Weapons given how air-tight that entire film is both paced and pieced together through multiple perspectives. The Secret Agent uses a glorious amount of old-school editing tricks as well to be a surprise nominee here. But I have to stick with my gut on Sentimental Value, whose editing choices, particularly through a handful of montages, are integral to telling its generational story.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Sinners
2. Train Dreams
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Hamnet

ALT: Marty Supreme

The Cinematographer’s Guild awards nominated Darius Khondji’s dynamic work on Marty Supreme, but these guilds rarely go 5/5. I do think  Łukasz Zal, who missed a nomination for The Zone of Interest but is a recent Academy favorite through his Pawlikowski works, will slip in for his immersive and nature-focused work in Hamnet. Not totally discounting a surprise nomination for F1 here either, making up for Claudio Miranda’s shocking snub for Top Gun: Maverick.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Hamnet

ALT: The Secret Agent

This might actually be the five I’m most confident in. Just an unshakeable group with few spoilers waiting in the wings. The Avatar films have done well here the past two times, but there isn’t much different in terms of locations as before and truly what of these five do you take out? I’ve seen some bravely predicting a Wicked snub, but it’s exactly the type of design work this branch loves. Marty Supreme has legendary production designer Jack Fisk recreating 1950s New York to absolute perfection. If there is any true spoiler, it may be for The Secret Agent, which like Fisk does with the 50s, stunningly recreates 1970s Brazil.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

ALT: Hedda

I really tried to make sure Production Design and Costume Design were different because there is always one outlier, but this may be a rare year where they match. The first four seem locked in, it’s that last spot that’s up in the air. I do have a sneaky feeling Marty Supreme will get in for Timmy’s fits, Gwyneth’s dresses, and filling the streets with hundreds of 1950 New York extras. If only there were six nominees, I’d be able to squeeze in a lone Costume Design nominee like a Hedda or Kiss of the Spider Woman. Maybe One Battle After Another makes it in for memorably designing the Bob Ferguson look. That would make the most sense, but alas.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Marty Supreme
5. Kokuho

ALT: One Battle After Another

Okay, here’s where I’m predicting a big snub. Yes, Wicked: For Good stands a good shot given its precursors and work on the Tin Man and the Scarecrow, but looking back on this category’s history: there has been only ONE direct sequel nominated for Best Makeup after the previous film was nominated as well and that is Coming to America/Coming 2 America, films that were made 30 years apart. There have been sequels nominated without the original (Austin Powers in The Spy Who Shagged Me/Maleficent: Mistress of Evil), and sequels and originals nominated with one or more entries in between snubbed (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers/Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 held a prosthetics record and couldn’t make it in despite the original’s nomination. That isn’t to say Wicked: For Good has no shot, but the branch bake-off seemed to really have their eyes on films like Marty Supreme and Sinners. Kokuho may be the nomination no one sees coming, but is filled with unique theatrical designs and old age makeup. One Battle After Another could get in on the strength of the Sean Penn design at the end of the film courtesty of Arjen Tuiten, a former nominee. But it is such brief work, it’s clearly not a guarantee.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: Fire & Ash
2. F1
3. The Lost Bus
4. Superman
5. Wicked: For Good

ALT: Tron: Ares

Avatar is the lockiest lock to ever lock here and F1 is filled with impressive “you’d never know it” visual effects shots. The Lost Bus impressively recreates a large-scale disaster, using digital backgrounds that feel seamless. The visual effects branch bakeoff seemed impressed enough with Superman for it’s kaiju monsters and of course, Krypto the Super Dog. Wicked: For Good‘s work is as flooded with design and spectacle as the original, although it’s animal CGI work has been a note of criticism, though not as much as Frankenstein. In fact, I’d probably feel no pressure putting Frankenstein here and even it being a spoiler win if Avatar didn’t exist if not for the distractingly dodgy visual effects work on woodland animals. The digital backdrops are impressive, but not unbelievable visual effects. I do have a suspicious feeling the nominee we may not be expecting is the box-office failure Tron: Ares. This branch has nominated far more ridiculed films just based on the work itself (The Lone Ranger) and they put the work first, and with Tron, the work is the entire film. God forbid The Electric State becomes an Oscar-nominated film.

BEST SOUND
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sirāt

ALT: Avatar: Fire & Ash

The top 3 are all massive Sound showcases, One Battle has the car chases, and Sirāt‘s sound work is innovative and integral to the movie. It feels odd leaving Avatar off the list, but given it’s lukewarm reception and a feeling of “been there, done that”, it may just be a lone Visual Effects nominee/winner. I could still see Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning getting in as a last-gasp nomination for this franchise (the submarine scene should guarantee it a nomination), but the passion seems to have evaporated.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. K Pop Demon Hunters : “Golden”
2. Sinners : “I Lied to You”
3. Diane Warren: Relentless : “Dear Me”
4. Wicked: For Good : “No Place Like Home”
5. Sinners : “Last Time (I Seen the Sun”

ALT: Train Dreams : “Train Dreams”

Diane Warren, please end your reign of terror. As stupid as it is that she’s a guaranteed nominee (the year she finally misses will be an end of an era). Sinners getting two nominations here seems like a lot, but “Last Time” is such an emotional final stap on the film and it’s the most impressively written song in the film, while “I Lied to You” is memorable but more for the pivotal moment/scene in which the song takes place. “The Girl in the Bubble” is the odds favorite for Wicked: For Good, but I have yet to hear someone in person say they liked that song or prefer it to “No Place Like Home”, which is far more a listenable ballad. Train Dreams missing here would sadden me, but it wouldn’t surprise me. It is a low-key, depressing song. One that the Academy would normally still take to, but Train Dreams (to make it make sense in my head) can sit comfortably with three nominations (Picture/Screenplay/Cinematography) without it. But it’s right on the bubble.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

ALT: F1

The first two are undeniable. Max Richter is in the hunt for his first long-due nomination and has been campaigning. This is Desplat’s best shot at getting in after six years of getting surprisingly left out for films like The French Dispatch and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, though Frankenstein‘s score does feel like “more of the same”. Marty Supreme‘s score is just so present and electric, it’s hard to see the final nominations for a film the industry loves leave out such a pivotal aspect to Marty Supreme. F1 has Hans Zimmer and boasts a memorable main riff, but isn’t nearly the operatic work he did with Nolan or Villeneuve. Sirāt has been talked about a lot here, even nabbing a Globe nomination, but this one may be too “melody-less” and experimental for the Academy’s music branch.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
1. Beyond Silence
2. The Boy With the White Skin
3. Ado
4. Two People Exchanging Saliva
5. Rock, Paper, Scissors

ALT: Amarela

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. Snow Bear
2. Éiru
3. Butterfly (Papillon)
4. Cardboard
5. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

ALT: Autokar

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed With Only A Camera
3. The Devil is Busy
4. All the Walls Came Down
5. Cashing Out

ALT: Bad Hostage

With these, I have no idea. I’m just going off of Awards Expert/Gold Derby predictions and yes, just “how the titles sound”. The shorts categories are always a crapshoot and unless you’ve seen them all, they really are anonymous nominees until they’re actually nominated. Predicting the winners will be where we really dissect these down.

So that’s it!

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Here are my final projected nomination tallies for feature films:

“Sinners” – 15 nominations (*ALL-TIME RECORD*)
“One Battle After Another” – 13 nominations
“Marty Supreme” – 10 nominations
“Frankenstein” – 9 nominations
“Hamnet” – 9 nominations
“Sentimental Value” – 8 nominations
“The Secret Agent” – 4 nominations
“Wicked: For Good” – 4 nominations
“Bugonia” – 3 nominations
“F1” – 3 nominations
“It Was Just An Accident” – 3 nominations
“Train Dreams” – 3 nominations
“K Pop Demon Hunters” – 2 nominations
“Sirāt” – 2 nominations
“2,000 Meters to Andriivka” – 1 nomination
“Apocalypse in the Tropics” – 1 nomination
“Arco” – 1 nomination
“Avatar: Fire & Ash” – 1 nomination
“Blue Moon” – 1 nomination
“Cover-Up” – 1 nomination
“Cutting Through Rocks” – 1 nomination
“Diane Warren: Relentless” – 1 nomination
“Elio” – 1 nomination
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” – 1 nomination
“Kokuho” – 1 nomination
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” – 1 nomination
“The Lost Bus” – 1 nomination
“My Undesirable Friends- Part 1: Last Air in Moscow” – 1 nominatioin
“No Other Choice” – 1 nomination
“The Smashing Machine” – 1 nomination
“Sorry, Baby” – 1 nomination
“Superman” – 1 nomination
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” – 1 nomination
“Weapons” – 1 nomination
“Zootopia 2” – 1 nomination

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Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Comment below. Thanks for reading!

The Academy Award nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22nd, 2026.