As we enter the home stretch, one week from the finish line, we face what we seem to always face each and every year towards the end of awards season: smear campaigns, anonymous ballots, controversies, and the sudden feeling that an underdog is coming for the big win of the night. Most of these occurrences are nothing but hot air from the fumes of a season that continues to be stretched out far longer than necessary. The only reason I could possibly be thankful for an Oscars in mid-March is in giving me time to catch up with all of the nominated films (I’m still two away!) and to prep our Oscar Party menu. Having an Academy Awards ceremony during St. Patrick’s Day weekend? Be reasonable, ABC!

In the case of where we’re at this season, the “Is Hamnet this year’s Oscars Villain?” narrative lasted about a week. In fact, there is no Oscars villain in a year where the two films most likely to win Best Picture are two that everyone loves. In fact, while One Battle After Another is still the favorite, Sinners is so close behind and will likely perform just as well on a preferential ballot that the race is not sewn up until whoever presents last is reading the envelope. Sinners got a considerable boost from SAG, winning Best Actor and Best Ensemble Cast, as well as receiving a large wave of love (particularly towards Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo) after the atrociously-handled BAFTAs incident. The Sinners love is so loud, it may be enough to surge to the top in a few extra categories that it was looked at in second place for.

Speaking of Best Actor, Timothee Chalamet went into this season seemingly locked in for the win, but losses at BAFTA (understandable given Aramayo was playing the more British-beloved role) and SAG (maybe understandable given he won last year) prove he is not a guarantee, nor may he even be the runner-up favorite to win. On top of that, Chalamet got himself in hot water with his first wave of reactionary smear campaigns hoping to taint his image. There is of course his interview with Matthew McConaughey in which Chalamet appeared to “dismiss the art of ballet and opera” and also an article that claimed that Chalamet requires an annoying diet from his personal chef that results in wasted food… I got nothing! People have never been more bored than they are right now! I think ultimately this means nothing and in fact, many voters may still just look at him as an actor who is “too young” and “needs to earn his award like Leo did”. It’s dumb, but it would be more dumb if it happened in a year where the category was in a weaker year. He just so happens to be nominated in one of the best set of Lead Actor nominees we’ve had in years, a rare one where if any one were to win, it would be deserved.

With that said, I have not watched any of the shorts and much like last year, I probably won’t. They can be annoying to track down if you don’t attend the Oscars Shorts marathon in theaters. They can be a drag to sit through. The worst ones usually win. Unless you’re watching them for better context, even then, they still don’t always go in the obvious direction. Three roll-the-dice categories. But I’ll do my best to predict.

One final note is that with every “Should Be Here”, I will try to spread the love and shout-out one movie at a time in the category it deserves to be recognized in best.

BEST PICTURE

As stated above, this should have been an easy win for One Battle After Another, winner of the PGA, BAFTA, Globes, Critics’ Choice, and literally everything else. But Oscars can always be a surprise turnaround as we saw for Moonlight and Parasite. CODA‘s surge happened right when voting kicked in. Voters sometimes get bored and look for alternatives, but I remain buckled in for One Battle only because it just seems unstoppable at this point and probably plays better to the international block of the Academy than Sinners, giving it the edge on the preferential ballot. For a movie set entirely in a bar, Blue Moon was enchanting and one of Richard Linklater’s best movies.

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: “Sinners”
Should Be Here: “Blue Moon”

BEST DIRECTOR

Even more sewn up than Best Picture is Paul Thomas Anderson for Director. He’s taking this unless there is a shock Bong Joon-Ho surprise, but at the very least, Bong won a tied-Critic’s Choice prize along the way. Coogler would be coming in with no precursor wins. Still, history could be made and anoint Coogler as the first black director in history to win. Jafar Panahi seemed like a shoo-in after his film won the Palme D’or, and with such an important narrative, it’s shameful the Academy couldn’t even acknowledge him outside of a Screenplay nomination.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Should Be Here: Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just An Accident”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I’m aware the momentum is on Jordan, but I telegraphed that SAG win from a mile away and Moura wasn’t even nominated (nor were any international film performances, a real divide from the Academy). Chalamet is not out of the race. His loss at BAFTA and SAG were explainable, but had he won either prize, he would feel totally locked in. The issue with Marty Supreme (much like other films with the name “Marty” associated) is that it does feel like the type of movie to get double-digit nominations and leave empty-handed. But I’ve been looking at Moura since the beginning of the season as the possible underdog. It’s a quiet performance but one that contains multitudes. Fernanda Torres seemed like she could best Mikey Madison and Demi Moore last year after her Globes win surge and I’m Still Here‘s rising profile and Best Picture nomination, but Madison was the star of the Best Picture winner. Moura has a stronger shot, international appeal, and doesn’t carry the baggage of two “young” male stars who will likely be back for more nominations in the future and still could “wait their turn” (not an opinion I share, but there are a lot of voters who think this way). Hawke is my favorite of the category and deserves a long-awaited win, but this just doesn’t seem like the year or the film to do it. Poor Joel Edgerton, whose sympathetic, tender work is yet another of his performances that gets overlooked.

Will Win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Alternate: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Should Be Here: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Maybe the most done-deal win of the night? Buckley swept every major precursor and is in the biggest film nominated in this category. Her towering and empathetic performance was already guaranteed the win the minute the film first screened. Byrne has a Globe win but all of her big wins were without Buckley in direct competition. Sally Hawkins meanwhile delivered incredible, haunting, and scary work in the deeply upsetting Bring Her Back.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Alternate: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”
Should Be Here: Sally Hawkins, “Bring Her Back”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The supporting categories are usually the most certain awards of any given year and yet this year, it’s a coin toss. At least with Supporting Actor, Penn won SAG and BAFTA, putting him finally as the clear favorite. He seemed like a winner when the film first premiered, then Benicio started winning critics prizes, then Elordi won Critic’s Choice, then Skarsgard won the Globe… but as much as Skarsgard probably deserves the win the most, (also for a historic career), Penn’s villain Col. Lockjaw is just too memorable to ignore. Unfortunately, Adam Sandler continues to be robbed anytime he tries to give a great performance in a good movie.

Will Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”
Should Be Here: Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

A coin toss. Wunmi won BAFTA (it could be hers!). Taylor won Globe (it could be hers!). Madigan swept critics awards and won SAG and Critics Choice (it’s most likely hers!). My big doubt about Madigan is entirely genre bias, which has continued to fail so many actors with the Academy for years (Angela Bassett for example), and the idea that One Battle After Another‘s 13 nominations compared to Weapon’s 1 nomination may loom too large to ignore. We’ve seen it with Everything Everywhere recently where the most loved film is usually going to carry the wins. Madigan winning for Weapons would be tremendous and I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but even with just a Globe win, Taylor just feels likely to get swept up in the love for her film. Nina Hoss dominated her role in Hedda and went totally unsung this whole year.

Will Win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Should Be Here: Nina Hoss, “Hedda”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Sentimental Value would be the obvious choice in a different year, or a different decade, but Coogler’s fascinating mixing of genres to deliver an unforgettable movie experience makes it the boldest, most “original” film in the lineup. Plus, Coogler is guaranteed a win on Oscar night regardless. If there is any unsung film or script this year, it’s Black Bag.

Will Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Alternate: Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt, “Sentimental Value”
Should Be Here: David Koepp, “Black Bag”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The idea that anyone is taking this from Paul Thomas Anderson is absurd. One Battle After Another could lose Best Picture, but Paul Thomas Anderson is nominated in one of the driest Adapted Screenplay lineups in memory with no serious competition, even Hamnet, whose screenplay isn’t even the true element that makes that movie work. After 14 nominations and no wins, and for a career whose films have been nominated a collective 41 times, this is the first time Paul Thomas Anderson has been truly guaranteed a win. How Rian Johnson missed a nomination for what is maybe his best script in a film series that so far has been nominated for Screenplay twice before, in a weak year for this category? I ask, how?

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, “Hamnet”
Should Be Here: Rian Johnson, “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

It’s more of a toss-up than it seems, but the Academy’s love for Sentimental Value is just so large, with four acting nominations and director. The Secret Agent won the Globe (though the Brazilian membership gave it the edge), the Critics Choice (Sentimental Value not a nominee), and Indie Spirits (Sentimental Value not a nominee again). The Secret Agent has the “love for movies” element, but Sentimental Value has that as well. Both films feel like ones that would win this category, but on a weighted scale, Value has the clear edge. When Park Chan-wook will finally get his due? Maybe never, and God knows why.

Will Win: “Sentimental Value”
Alternate: “The Secret Agent”
Should Be Here: “No Other Choice”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The global phenomenon has cakewalked its way to every Animated Feature prize its been up for (not eligible at BAFTA). Everybody knows it, everyone’s kids have watched it, and it’s been in Netflix’s Top 10 Movies of the Week since June as well as it’s most watched movie of all-time. It’s unstoppable. As much as I don’t care for it, I can’t deny its power. Ne Zha 2 wasn’t even eligible despite being the highest grossing animated film of all time, and in my eyes, the best animated film of the year.

Will Win: “K-Pop Demon Hunters”
Alternate: “Zootopia 2”
Should Be Here: “Ne Zha 2”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Yes, Russia docs of recent have done incredibly well here (though 2000 Meters to Andriivka and My Undesirable Friends got left off the list this year), and Mr. Nobody won the BAFTA, but the most seen, most accessible, and most heart-shattering doc of the five is The Perfect Neighbor. As the most awarded doc and early awards season “favorite”, like with most years, all it had to due was avoid getting snubbed by the ruthless Academy Doc Branch and it would all-too-likely win the category and it did just that. As for the snub of this category, My Undesirable Friends, the 5-hour, heart-racing depiction of journalists having to flee Russia during the start of the Ukraine war is a heroic piece of cinematic journalism that may be more an important and vital piece of media than any Oscar needs to recognize.

Will Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Alternate: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
Should Be Here: “My Undesirable Friends- Part 1: Last Air in Moscow”

BEST CASTING

Assembling a large, diverse group of talent of up-and-comers, A-listers, and veteran actors that all share the same location and space for most of the film, Sinners shines a massive spotlight on its cast from frame one. On top of discovering the tremendous talent of Miles Caton, every actor in the cast finds a way to make their roles pop and sizzle, but also remember them by their character names rather than this actor’s name or that, making them fully identifiable and memorable creations brought brilliantly to life. One Battle would win this for similar reasons, but Sinners‘ ensemble is the soul of the film. Weapons, which had the impossible task of having to recast its main ensemble due to the strikes, as well as deliver a showcase career-revival role for Amy Madigan, deserved the honor as well.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Alternate: “One Battle After Another”
Should Be Here: “Weapons”

BEST EDITING

Nearly 3 hours that fly by in an instant should win over nearly 3 hours that feel like pure exhaustion when not viewed on a large screen. F1, to me, is a laborious sit that desperately needs a half hour removed from its runtime, but when the racing scenes hit, it is undeniably impressive. The idea that F1 is second place is only due to it being a race car film, one that showcases editing loudly when pacing its zoom-zoom set pieces (Ford v Ferrari a previous winner for the same reasons). I guess Sinners would be the other obvious choice, but F1‘s use of flashy editing (the most editing usually has the edge here) is more integral to its existence. But One Battle has won too many deserved Editing awards to miss here. Not a second is wasted with every crisp cut. Its pacing is truly unbelievable. The Secret Agent‘s beautiful use of old-fashioned film techniques to structure and steadily-pace its 160 minute runtime.

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Alternate: “F1”
Should Be Here: “The Secret Agent”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

One Battle After Another and Sinners will be the #1 and #2 in many categories. At first it seemed like Train Dreams may actually pull through with its gorgeous depiction of nature, but One Battle‘s recent wins and use of VistaVision have proved it may be the one to beat after all. That said, Sinners‘ use of multiple film formats, IMAX enhancements, and a potential historic win for Autumn Durald Arkapaw is maybe too big to dismiss. It really is a tight race here, but I’m going to go with my gut and stick with Sinners. Bi Gan’s wondrous and dream-like cinematic masterwork should be honored here for its inventive use of capturing different film eras.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Alternate: “One Battle After Another”
Should Be Here: “Resurrection”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

These next three categories feel all “sewn up” (get it?) for Frankenstein, the type of film that exists to win these exact awards. A Guillermo del Toro film winning Production Design just seems too obvious to bet against. Meanwhile, with The Phoenician Scheme, another Wes Anderson film gets ignored for the one element it excels at better than most films ever could dream. Almost every film of his should have a production design nomination or win under its belt, and for some reason, it’s only happened once.

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Alternate: “Sinners”
Should Be Here: “The Phoenician Scheme”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The only potential upset against Frankenstein is Sinners, a film that carefully costumes its lead actor into two distinct identical twin characters through color-coding, but also showcases centuries-worth of looks for one spectacular, year’s best sequence in any film this year. How The Ugly Stepsister was overlooked for costumes, while recognized for its makeup, is beyond me. The costumes are magnificently eery, absurd, and eye-popping.

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Alternate: “Sinners”
Should Be Here: “The Ugly Stepsister”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Frankenstein is a film that was made to win a Makeup Oscar. Makeup is essential to that film even working in the first place, otherwise Frankenstein’s Monster would just look like Jacob Elordi! While some have noted a lack of realism with its design, I wholeheartedly disagree. The lumps of pale flesh woven onto Elordi to give him life seem real to me, enough where I can tell how pungent they would smell in reality. That plus Mia Goth’s crazy but subtle transformation into Victor’s mother is startlingly good. The most baffling ignorance (and more than for just this category) is for 28 Years Later, who not only reinvent its own franchise’s zombie designs but create Ralph Fiennes iodine-coated Dr. Kelson, as well as introduce us to the Jimmys.

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Alternate: “Sinners”
Should Be Here: “28 Years Later”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar has such a leg up on its competition, the only film that could beat it is if another Avatar film came out this year. The franchise whose visual effects are its foundation for existence should win yet again. Unless the Academy felt like doing something left-field to give another film a shot, it would be Sinners for its innovate new body double technology. But I’ve always attested that the visual effects in Sinners, while impressive and seamless, are too minimal to be given visual effects honors and are only being carried with nominations this year from the sheer love of the film. What seamless work should have been recognized is for the eighth Mission: Impossible. Not everything you see is a Tom Cruise stunt! He didn’t really swim inside a sunken submarine!

Will Win: “Avatar: Fire & Ash”
Alternate: “Sinners”
Should Be Here: “Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning”

BEST SOUND

F1, the zoom-zoom movie, is the obvious choice. The BAFTA winner is the likely favorite to win the only award it stands a chance at. But I sense a Sinners surge is coming and it will snatch up a couple wins in craft categories that it’s not favored to. Here, Sinners is a grand musical experience, where the symphonic nature of the film is a religious experience for the ears. How the exceptional and terrifying work on Warfare wasn’t even shortlisted is beyond my comprehension.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Alternate: “F1”
Should Be Here: “Warfare”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Congrats on your third Oscar, Ludwig. As our new John Williams, Ludwig Göransson’s soundtrack for Sinners is one of the best for a film in recent memory, yet still just the start of a career certain to continue delivering masterful work for years to come. Jonny Greenwood still deserves his first win, but it just may not be this year. The snub that stings the most is Daniel Lopatin’s brilliant, euphoric score for Marty Supreme.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Alternate: “One Battle After Another”
Should Be Here: “Marty Supreme”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Golden” is the favorite by a mile… and yet I’m sticking to my guns on Sinners. It’s a stupid bet, I know, but “I Lied to You” is the scene of the year and not just some pop-hit radio smash. Academy voters that love Sinners will vote for Sinners. That song, that sequence the song narrates, is the beating heart of its beloved film. It’s the most deserving of the nominees and I will stick to it and likely be wrong. What should be here (over, I don’t know, a woman named Diane perhaps?) is the other contender from Sinners, the powerful closing anthem “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”.

Will Win: “Sinners”- “I Lied to You”
Alternate: “K-Pop Demon Hunters” – “Golden”
Should Be Here: “Sinners” – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

The Singers is the crowd-pleaser of the choices and the Netflix option. It just feels like the one that will get the most votes. The experimental (and very French) Two People gets its attention from the title alone and could upset, but is more likely to be divisive.

Will Win: “The Singers”
Alternate: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

The stop-motion animated Girl Who Cried Pearls seems to have risen the ranks of pundit picks since its nomination. Butterfly was the early favorite of the nominees by prognosticators, but we’ll see.

Will Win: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
Alternate: “Butterfly”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

The devastating (and close to home) subject matter of All the Empty Rooms may be just enough to get the Academy’s favor, but I have noticed The Devil is Busy having a solid campaign. It even shows up every time I log into HBO Max.

Will Win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Alternate: “The Devil is Busy”

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Comment below. Thanks for reading!

The 98th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 15th, 2026 on ABC at 6pm CT and will also stream simultaneously on Disney Plus with Hulu.