We’ve reached the point in the year where everything has been seen except for Avatar and the critics awards have yet to begin. By the time my next December predictions happen, we may be catapulted into an entirely different set of expectations. The month after that will be my final predictions before the nomination announcement. Time is racing forward. In between this month and last, I’ve made some huge leaps with some of these contenders. Expectations waning or increasing just smelling the air of the room at this given moment. Starting with…

Avatar: Fire and Ash: My most anticipated for the rest of the year and yet I’ve decided that I do need to hold on until it’s been seen. I’ve enjoyed the trailer and the little nugget sneak peaks we’ve gotten recently, but I worry this may hit “third movie syndrome”, even under someone like Cameron. It will get in the obvious categories, but considering The Way of Water seemed to just squeak in toward the bottom of the Best Picture lineup of 2022, I can’t be too certain, especially with one other giant holiday blockbuster apparently a sure thing.

Bugonia: I don’t really know what to do with Bugonia yet. Having seen and loved the film, and with its box office and audience reception at a far better climb than expected, I’m curious how much the Academy will enjoy Yorgo’s nasty little sci-fi comic thriller. To me, it’s nearly on the outside of every single category, just hoping to punch through its ceiling. It’s a film I really see the Globes going for, which will boost its pedigree, although the Globes also loved Challengers last year, so…

Christy: I still think Sweeney is getting that SAG nomination. Foster could too. They will campaign hard. I’m just going to have to see more momentum in the coming weeks because the box office certainly isn’t there for it. Maybe this just isn’t the year for actors getting in the ring to tussle.

Frankenstein: I had to really assess my feelings on this one in the last couple of weeks. When seeing it in theatres, the flaws of the film were just too apparent for me to imagine this cracking Best Picture. But the audience reception for it has just been surprisingly full of love and upon second viewing, I too, began to sink into it, paying more attention to its strengths than its weaknesses. It played much smoother and even the pace felt cozier. Elordi’s performance even grew in appreciation. I started to finally see it being at least 5% of the Academy’s favorite of the year. And make no mistake, Netflix will campaign the hell out of it. They will treat it like their Wicked.

A House of Dynamite: I’ve taken it out completely. I was hanging on to that Editing nomination, which I still think is an outside shot, but it seems Netflix may just move on from this entirely and focus on Train Dreams and Frankenstein.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You: I see this movie dominating the independent awards space in the same way Past Lives and Sing Sing did recently and while I’m not sure it gets in for Best Picture, I’m really feeling the heat for this to be our “didn’t see it coming” contender with Mary Bronstein in Original Screenplay. Enough to back a potential Byrne nomination.

Jay Kelly: I have long argued that the Academy will take to Jay Kelly. The issue, to me, is will Netflix bother? It just kind of feels like they may abandon it in favor of even flashier titles. Netflix definitely isn’t getting three in this year and with Frankenstein feeling a bit more secure and Jay Kelly not being the most rapturously-responded-to film like Train Dreams, maybe it’s just not enough? Sandler was always a tough sell as a nominee, despite his performance being the most celebrated aspect. The original screenplay race is getting thick. And yet, I don’t think this gets blanked. It does feel like a 1 or 2 nomination-type film, as though they still found room because it caters to voters somewhere. A film like Babylon that seems like Oscar catnip on paper, but just can’t crack above-the-line and will take whatever scraps it can get.

No Other Choice: Considering its buzz is just a bit stagnant right now until December, and other titles are moving up and down for me, I’ve made the difficult decision of sliding it out completely. This isn’t my first rodeo expecting the Academy to embrace a Park Chan-wook movie only for it to goose-egg. NEON’s just juggling so much. But as I said, I’m just waiting for the buzz to come back.

Nouvelle Vague: It may not have a lot of heat now, but if the Best Casting Oscar is truly going to award the Best Casting of the year, there is no more obvious contender than this. Given its subject matter and filmmaker, it’s hard to see the Academy completely overlooking this film and I do think it should/will crack in here. One place to keep a keen eye on is the Adapted Screenplay race. While the guidelines on what is considered original/adapted are flimsy with this one (an original script that heavily incorporates a Breathless‘ screenplay within the scenes of the film while not being an adaptation of Breathless). To me, it’s obviously Original, but to Netflix strategy and Academy rules, maybe not?

The Secret Agent: I’m getting weary about it, I’ll admit. But I’m sticking to it in Best Picture. Something about Wagner Moura being a real threat in Best Actor (that Globe win feels certain, he could take BAFTA) that may carry the movie alongside him.

Song Sung Blue: Now that people have seen it, and most have liked it… I still think this just doesn’t cut it. Hudson will enjoy her Globe nomination. She’s the film’s only shot, and it’s not impossible, but I just don’t see the heat being there for her when that Actress race is this stacked. Also, there is just always something that smells funky about Penske media pushing certain contenders before they’re seen by critics/audiences.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere: Sunk like a stone. White’s performance is good, his singing is great, but he was really the only hope I had for it’s nomination chances and I just don’t see it anymore. Crazy how a few months ago, it looked like he could win, but that film just let him down.

Wicked: For Good: It’s been seen! *sigh* I want to preface this by saying I love the Broadway show, I thought the first movie was great, and I look forward to this film. But I feel fully worn down with this one and it is entirely because of fans of a certain performer involved overcrowding the internet with hype expectations and demonic obsession over her awards chances. That said, we also just don’t have a Supporting Actress frontrunner this year that feels confident. I have long struggled to include Erivo and Grande in my lineup because it’s unprecedented. No one, let alone two, performers have gotten nominated for the same role twice in consecutive years, especially given it’s technically the same production as the first film. While I would judge the performances separate in terms of my own personal awards, I have always felt that the Academy, as they did with Ian McKellan in The Lord of the Rings, would assume “we nominated that already, why waste a spot that someone new could have?” That said, I guess I’m saying “f*ck it”. Precedents are meant to be broken. While I don’t like the idea of predicting performers because “they got in last time, they’ll get in this time!” because it’s incredibly naive (it certainly didn’t work for Joaquin last year!), it seems like the reception is indeed loud enough for Grande that she will get the win she missed a year ago. Erivo, I have in, but with that Actress race and the praise being mostly targeted at Grande, there is a world where she could be left out. There’s always a surprising omission. I do wonder where we’d be with this race, though, had Grande won last year…

BEST PICTURE

1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

2. Hamnet (Focus Features)

3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)

4. Marty Supreme (A24)

5. Sentimental Value (NEON)

6. It Was Just An Accident (NEON)

7. Wicked: For Good (Universal)

8. Frankenstein (Netflix)

9. Train Dreams (Netflix)

10. The Secret Agent (NEON)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson : One Battle After Another

2. Jafar Panahi : It Was Just An Accident

3. Chloe Zhao : Hamnet

4. Josh Safdie : Marty Supreme

5. Joachim Trier : Sentimental Value

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Timothee Chalamet : Marty Supreme

2. Leonardo DiCaprio : One Battle After Another

3. Wagner Moura : The Secret Agent

4. Michael B. Jordan : Sinners

5. Ethan Hawke : Blue Moon

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Jessie Buckley : Hamnet

2. Renate Reinsve : Sentimental Value

3. Rose Byrne : If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

4. Amanda Seyfried : The Testament of Ann Lee

5. Cynthia Erivo : Wicked: For Good

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Stellan Skarsgard : Sentimental Value

2. Sean Penn : One Battle After Another

3. Paul Mescal : Hamnet

4. Benicio del Toro : One Battle After Another

5. Jacob Elordi : Frankenstein

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Ariana Grande: Wicked: For Good

2. Teyana Taylor: One Battle After Another

3. Elle Fanning : Sentimental Value

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas : Sentimental Value

5. Wunmi Mosaku : Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. It Was Just An Accident

2. Sentimental Value

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sinners

5. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Train Dreams

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Bugonia

BEST CASTING

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sentimental Value

5. Nouvelle Vague

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. It Was Just An Accident

2. Sentimental Value

3. The Secret Agent

4. Left-Handed Girl

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. The Alabama Solution

3. 2,000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cover-Up

5. Put Your Soul On Your Hand And Walk

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia 2

2. K-Pop Demon Hunters

3. Arco

4. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

5. Elio

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Train Dreams

4. Hamnet

5. Marty Supreme

BEST EDITING

1. One Battle After Another

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sinners

4. Sentimental Value

5. The Secret Agent

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire & Ash

5. Hamnet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Hamnet

4. Sinners

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. The Smashing Machine

4. Sinners

5. One Battle After Another

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. F1

4. Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

BEST SOUND

1. Sinners

2. F1

3. One Battle After Another

4. Avatar: Fire & Ash

5. Warfare

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Jay Kelly

5. Frankenstein

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Sinners : “I Lied to You”

2. K-Pop Demon Hunters : “Golden”

3. Wicked: For Good : “Girl in the Bubble”

4. Diane Warren: Relentless : “Dear Me”

5. Train Dreams: “Train Dreams”

The 99th Academy Award nominations will be announced on January 22nd, 2026.

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!