Wow, what a few weeks of festival season can do. Post-Venice, Telluride, and the ongoing TIFF, we’ve finally gotten a clearer look at… well, how a lot of these films actually are. What the buzz off the ground is. What is speaking the loudest in terms of audience reception. What festivals can completely dismiss a film’s chances and what festival can instantly revive them (looking at you, Venice and Telluride). So without lingering on, here are a few films and performances that have made the biggest impression, better or worse.

After The Hunt: Unfortunately, Luca Guadagnino’s latest seems destined to be the first film discussed from its year on the This Had Oscar Buzz podcast. Yes, regardless of the reception, it did still seem that Julia Roberts would be an unstoppable force in Best Actress, possibly bringing 2-3 of her costars along with her, but the initial word of mouth on After the Hunt is that it is just simply a misfire, despite having all the right pieces in play. Whether this is just critics who had a rough spell of weather affect their judgment (not likely, but people will spread that gossip), or just a tough crowd at Venice, the only loud praise for the film, even from those who disliked it, is for Julia Roberts’ career-best performance. Whether she can still cling onto a spot in Best Actress is to be determined. If her precursors treat her well, there is a very good chance, but if she can’t get off the ground right away, the film may get goose-egged. 

Bugonia: While most critics loved Yorgos’ newest black comedy, it does seem to be, as I expected, just a bit too austere and weird to really crack in for big nominations. That said, it only sits just on the outside looking in. You never know how it’ll be embraced as it gets closer to release time. 

Christy: I want to resist predicting Sydney Sweeney, mostly because her star power feels completely inflated by tabloids, but here’s the deal: when Sweeney is in a bad movie, she sticks out like a sore thumb (Madame Web, Anyone But You). When she’s in a good movie or television series, she’s pretty great (Immaculate, Reality, Euphoria). I think the material usually matches her as an actress and she definitely looks compelling in the trailer for Christy and her reviews are strong. Yes, she’s the social media star ingenue of the moment… but all it takes is one role for an actress of her age to gain heaps of appreciation. This feels like Ana de Armas in Blonde, in that there will be a lot of pundits resistant to predicting her, whether for bias or dismissal, but she’ll keep showing up. It says a lot that a tiny production company like Black Bear is having to distribute the film themselves, which should be a death nail for the film if not for it actually helping the film’s publicity. It also means they will be singularly focused on campaigning Sweeney, much like Briarclfif did last year with The Apprentice. I can’t imagine SAG member mailboxes won’t be flooded with screeners. 

Frankenstein: While there was great appreciation for its crafts, the ultimate reactions to Guillermo del Toro’s latest seem to settle on “disappointing” and “overlong”. That said, it seems guaranteed a handful of tech nominations. 

Hamnet: This one seems to be the real deal. It appears that Chloe Zhao not only made a worthy return to the Oscars, but made a film that surpasses her Best Picture winner Nomadland. Buckley’s nomination is written in Sharpie and Paul Mescal is a genuine threat for a nomination should he settle for Supporting. 

House of Dynamite: This could be a big hit for Netflix, with Sound, Score, and Editing nominations all in play, but the repetitve plot structure and lack of a cast member standout may keep it out of the Best Picture race.

Jay Kelly: Just when you thought it was out, Telluride pulls it back in! Yes, muted reception seemed damning to Jay Kelly’s awards chances when it first premiered at Venice. A warm, but lukewarm word of mouth seemed to be indicating that Noah Baumbach’s latest was a bit too flawed to resonate. It was still hard to imagine a group like The Academy dismissing Jay Kelly, a film about the business and all its ups and downs, but it does happen. Babylon, another Linus Sandgren-shot film, seemed like a sure thing before its release. But like Frankenstein’s monster, Telluride brought it back to life, embracing it. For those nervous we’d miss out on what could finally be Adam Sandler’s first nomination, this very much put everyone at ease. 

K-Pop Demon Hunters: Okay, I underestimated this one. Or at least, I underestimated how poor the rest of the field would shake out. Animated Feature (and maybe Original Song) seems to be in its favor unless Zootopia 2 steps up to the plate and knocks it out of the park.

No Other Choice: What a relief to have confidence in a Park Chan Wook film potentially securing an Oscar nomination, let alone, a few. In what could finally be his Parasite/The Zone of Interest moment, a much beloved filmmaker could finally make his breakthrough with the Academy. Despite Venice not granting it a single award, No Other Choice was still the most critically-praised film of the festival and one with the most passionate praise. NEON has a smorgasbord of contenders this year, which could put it at risk in favor of films like The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident. The latter being the biggest competition, with another acclaimed filmmaker also deserving of the recognition. Given that Sentimental Value is certainly in, it isn’t likely that 3 international films all from NEON make it into Best Picture. So it may be a Sophie’s Choice which between Park or Panahi’s films NEON decides to push more. 

One Battle After Another: I know I’m a simple PTA stan, but I do wanna call it. The rapturous response, “masterpiece” being attached to most reactions, “movie of the moment”, yada-yada. I’m moving it to my #1 spot. This may very well be Paul Thomas Anderson’s time. He just doesn’t have the type of competition he faced in the past. Not only does it feel like a Best Picture winner, but it may be big enough to actually gain some impressive box office numbers due to its enormous, throw-everything-at-the-wall marketing push. This may be the nomination leader, with the likely potential of 3 acting nominations (though all 6 of its main headline cast feel like they are in contention.)

The Smashing Machine: I bit my lip and put the Rock into Best Actor… then I thought about it just a bit longer and took him out. Everything about this to me screams SAG, Globe… and that’s the end of the road. It’s just a bit hard to imagine him being embraced by the Academy when there are enough contenders to pass him over with. If The Rock gets in, he gets in over Clooney or Jordan and I’m just not ready to make that call. Precursors will convince many otherwise, but unless he starts winning Actor awards, I’m still hesitant. Blunt, on the other hand, just seems ripe for that afterglow nomination. 

Song Sung Blue: Hmm. I don’t think so.

The Testament of Ann Lee: Incredibly hard to pin this one down. Amanda Seyfried received glowing praise for her lead role, as did Daniel Blumberg’s entrancing music, but opinions off the ground were split. It’s possible this only receives minimal attention from the Academy, though in places where it matters most (score, song, cinematography, Seyfried in Actress).

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery: It seems Rian Johnson has indeed done it again, with reviews in this one pointing to a “best in the franchise” declaration. That said, it doesn’t seem to be much beyond that. Josh O’Connor seems to be getting the most praise, but even he will struggle to fit into the Supporting Actor race. This will likely just settle for a Screenplay nomination and or Casting, much like the previous two. 

BEST PICTURE

1.One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

2. Sentimental Value (NEON)

3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)

4. Hamnet (Focus Features)

5. Marty Supreme (A24)

6. Jay Kelly (Netflix)

7. No Other Choice (NEON)

8. Rental Family (Searchlight)

9. Wicked: For Good (Universal)

10. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century Studios)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson : One Battle After Another

2. Joachim Trier : Sentimental Value

3. Ryan Coogler : Sinners

4. Chloe Zhao : Hamnet

5. Park Chan-Wook : No Other Choice

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Jeremy Allen White : Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

2. Timothee Chalamet : Marty Supreme

3. Leonardo DiCaprio : One Battle After Another

4. Michael B. Jordan : Sinners

5. George Clooney : Jay Kelly

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Jessie Buckley : Hamnet

2. Renate Reinsve : Sentimental Value

3. Sydney Sweeney : Christy

4. Julia Roberts : After the Hunt

5. Cynthia Erivo : Wicked: For Good

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Stellan Skarsgard : Sentimental Value

2. Adam Sandler : Jay Kelly

3. Paul Mescal : Hamnet

4. Sean Penn : One Battle After Another

5. Akira Emoto : Rental Family

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Elle Fanning : Sentimental Value

2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas : Sentimental Value

3. Emily Blunt : The Smashing Machine

4. Wunmi Mosaku : Sinners

5. Teyana Taylor: One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1.Sentimental Value

2. Jay Kelly

3. Sinners

4. Rental Family

5. Marty Supreme

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3.Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. No Other Choice

5. Bugonia

BEST CASTING

1. Sinners

2. Rental Family

3. Marty Supreme

4. Sentimental Value

5. One Battle After Another

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Sentimental Value

2. No Other Choice

3. The Secret Agent

4. Two Prosecutors

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2,000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics

5. Cover-Up

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia 2

2. K-Pop Demon Hunters

3. Ne Zha 2

4. Arco

5. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Sinners

2. Hamnet

3. Marty Supreme

4. Jay Kelly

5. The Testament of Ann Lee

BEST EDITING

1. Sinners

2. A House of Dynamite

3. Sentimental Value

4. Marty Supreme

5. One Battle After Another

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire & Ash

5. Hamnet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Hamnet

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. The Smashing Machine

4. Wolf Man

5. Sinners

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash

2. F1

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

4. Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning

5. Superman

BEST SOUND

1. Sinners

2. F1

3. Avatar: Fire & Ash

4. One Battle After Another

5. Warfare

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Sinners

2. Jay Kelly

3. Frankenstein

4. One Battle After Another

5. A House of Dynamite

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Sinners : “I Lied to You”

2. Wicked: For Good : “TBA”

3. Diane Warren: Relentless : “Relentless”

4. K-Pop Demon Hunters : “Golden”

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere : “TBA”

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!