PREDICTIONS: 99th Academy Award Nominations (SEPTEMBER 2026)

As per usual, here’s a handful of films that have altered my prognostication on this year’s Oscar race in the last month.

All of a Sudden: It’s not likely that we will get three International Features into Best Picture and with two coming from NEON, it’s even more likely only one will prevail. With Fjord’s deeply divisive premise and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s critically-acclaimed and emotional gobsmacker likely to be a stronger critic’s pick, Hamaguchi may find his way back to the Oscar’s after 2021’s Drive My Car. A screenplay nomination feels very likely and its actresses, both winners at Cannes, make a very strong case.

Being Huemann: It should always be noted that TIFF People’s Choice Award winners and runners up are instant Oscar contenders, though the usual number is 2 out of 3 films get into Best Picture and the winner, La Bola Negra, may be the most guaranteed film of the fall season. Low-count screenings and positive, though not glowing reviews for Sian Heder’s latest seem to signal that this will just end up being a nice crowdpleaser on Apple streaming and nothing else, though Madeley and a Casting nomination could easily crack the race.

The Debut: While the film has gotten a lot of good reviews, it does seem to be a weirder movie than the trailers lead on, which could ding its Best Picture aspirations, but one thing is certain: Julianne Moore is winning a second Oscar. With everyone and their mother saying the same thing about her bravura turn in Jesse Eisenberg’s newest comedy-drama, there doesn’t seem to be a performance in the race that could match the level of awards hype that Moore has already received. Giamatti seemed primed to get another nomination, though a win seems very uncertain.

Digger: Recent response to critics screenings seem to signal that my intuition on this once-obvious contender was right. Iñárritu has swung for the fences and more half if not most that have seen it, have not been satisfied. Too insane for audiences, too obnoxious for critics, and a likely disastrous box office run ahead, it seems we can expect we’ll have to wait much longer for Cruise to get his gold, though his performance has gotten plenty of praise.

Elsinore: Surprise winner of the International People’s Choice Award at TIFF, Andrew Scott seems like he may really be the real deal in securing a Best Actor win this year, despite some of the less-so praise for the film itself. We’ve seen films be carried by their performances into Best Picture, so this shouldn’t be discounted, but we’ll have to see whether this is Dallas Buyers Club or The Whale.

Fjord: It still feels to be determined on whether or not Fjord is the film that NEON will push most. It’s Palme win signaled early victory, though the same could be said for It Was Just An Accident. Reinsve feels safe in a weak field, but this could easily just be a Screenplay and/or International Feature and that’s it. A complicated subject matter is going to either turn on or turn off Academy voters at large, though I have a sneaking suspicion that if it doesn’t stay in the Best Picture lineup (no matter how unlikely in a field of 10 for this to happen), the Director’s branch could keep Cristian Mungiu as their surprise inclusion.

I Play Rocky: One of the TIFF Audience Award runner-ups, this film should absolutely not be discounted for Oscars. While on paper, the making of Rocky by the director of Green Book feels like Oscar bait too fluffy to even make a dent in the race, the rousing applause this movie has received at every screening is proof that maybe we should be taking this film seriously, especially as it’s even impressed Green Book detractors. Could Anthony Ippolito actually crack the Best Actor race? Maybe at SAG or Globes, though Oscars may be too thick a competition. But there is the new Best Casting category it feels ripe for and Screenplay has an opening (whether it’s considered eligible for Original, which it is, or Adapted due to the amount it pulls from recreating Rocky). Any year before 2025, it would make sense as a simple Picture/Screenplay nominee that stands no shot at winning, but is too much of a crowd-pleaser to deny.

The Mosquito Bowl: Kind of out of nowhere, Peter Berg’s new Netflix film seems like a stealth Best Sound nominee (and likely nothing else, but still). With an enormous team of the best in the sound business, regardless of whether you see it in a theater or at home, its immersive and terrifying soundscape may be just impressive enough to put this in the race.

Prima Facie: With reviews this poor, it’s not likely to assume Erivo will be back in the Best Actress race this year, despite Jodie Comer originating it as a Tony-winning role. Another one bites the dust.

Rose: Winning the Berlin Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance was the first sign that Huller, with an already amazing year lined up, should be in serious consideration for Best Actress, and as the film has been seen more and the Actress race thins down, Huller seems more and more likely. Austrian’s submission for Best International Feature, Rose also has a decent chance of nabbing a Makeup nomination as well in aiding Huller’s transformative performance.

The Social Reckoning: As the marketing continues to roll out for its soon-ish release date, Aaron Sorkin’s questionable follow-up has ramped up the angry energy in its most recent trailers, but still feels like a film that will likely be dinged hard for being inferior to its masterpiece original. That said, Jeremy Strong’s performance is still likely to get attention and Alexandre Desplat’s score, showcased in a recently released clip, seems electric.

Wild Horse Nine: Martin McDonaugh’s latest still seems pretty prime for a Best Picture nomination, though the enthusiasm seems to have worn off a bit. Dropping off in many predictor’s lists for Director and Supporting Actress, but still strong for Malkovich, Rockwell, and its script, Wild Horse Nine seems like the type of film that will get in with a solid amount of above the line support, but I don’t see this matching Banshees of Inisherin territory.

You Can See Everything: Like an atomic bomb landing square in the middle of awards conversation talk and melting the skulls of every film blogger, critic, and fan that thought they knew where this year was going, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim have seemingly delivered one of the great documentaries this century. That, or the surprise of this movie’s mere existence caused a wave of enthusiasm that no one was prepared for. As tempting as it would be proclaim future Oscar winner Nathan Fielder, something about this film despite its enormous hype will have to gain enough respect in the notoriously hard to predict Documentary branch and it’s pure oddity but be as much of a turn-off for some members as it will spark curiosity. The film is likely to win a ton of precursors in this category (while some may go all the way into giving it Best Film/Best Picture votes), but the Documentary frontrunner is rarely ever the eventual winner. I will just keep my fingers crossed, but my predictions cautious.

BEST PICTURE
All of a Sudden (NEON)
Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures)
The Debut (A24)
Dune Part Three (Warner Bros.)
The Invite (A24)
I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM)
La Bola Negra (Netflix)
The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)

Alt: Elsinore

Alt: Martin McDonaugh (Wild Horse Nine)

Alt: Tom Cruise (Digger)

Alt: Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden)

Alt: Edward Norton (The Invite)

Alt: Penelope Cruz (La Bola Negra)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Behemoth!
The Debut
Fjord
I Play Rocky
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: Artificial

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All of a Sudden
Dune Part Three
The Invite
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey

Alt: Project Hail Mary

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All of a Sudden
Fjord
La Bola Negra
Minotaur
Possible Love

Alt: Coward

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Doctor
Birds of War
NAZA
Nuisance Bear
Once Upon A Time in Harlem

Alt: You Can See Everything

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Iron Boy
Ray Gunn
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Hollow
Toy Story 5
Wildwood

Alt: Tangles

BEST CASTING
Fjord
I Play Rocky
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: The Debut

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Digger
Dune
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Werwulf

BEST EDITING
Behemoth!
Dune Part Three
The Invite
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey

Alt: Wild Horse Nine

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Digger
Dune Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Michael
The Odyssey
Sense & Sensibility

Alt: Wuthering Heights

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Bride!
Ebenezer
Michael
The Odyssey
Wicker

Alt: Clayface

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Whalefall

Alt: Avengers: Doomsday

BEST SOUND
Behemoth!
Dune Part Three
The Mosquito Bowl
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Whalefall

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Debut
Disclosure Day
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
The Social Reckoning

Alt: Project Hail Mary

Alt: “Runway” | The Devil Wears Prada 2

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!