PREDICTIONS: 99th Academy Awards Nominations (OCTOBER 2026)

Nearly missing my window for an October Predictions post is scarier than any potential Halloween frights. But this may be the most game-changing predictions post thus far as a wildly unexpected new Oscar frontrunner has entered the race and not in any form that the Academy has ever recognized before. We are in exciting new territory here as many “rules” will likely be broken, brand new paths will be formed, and history will, most likely, be made. On top of that, a few new contenders fall (some much expected) and others may be holding onto hope that the passionate side of its divisiveness can eek out a few nominations.

Artificial: It seems we may have a new possible Best Supporting Actor Oscar winner in Andrew Garfield. With its really solid reviews (a nice rebound for Guadagnino) and a timely, timely narrative that seems to have ate The Social Reckoning‘s lunch, there’s a real shot for this to be a Best Picture/Best Screenplay contender here, if not mostly off the strength of Garfield’s unsettling performance.

Behemoth: Goodbye, Behemoth! Goodbye Tony Gilroy! My intial prospects for this film have unfortunately been dashed due to lukewarm reviews, though Pascal is still in the race. Will the film be able to at least secure a Best Original Score nomination without getting disqualified for having every composer in Hollywood attached? Likely not!

Digger: Oh, Digger. Becoming one of the largest box office flops in history is certainly a blemish, one that could have been seen from a mile away. Its truly divisive reviews have blasted it as an obnoxious slog and hailed it as one of the greatest films of all time. There is true uncertainty regarding Digger’s standing in the race. It’s definitely a slam-dunk for a Production Design nomination at the very least (unless the Academy goes full Digger shutout). Kazu Hiro is too much of a legend in the Makeup branch to be dismissed. Cruise might get a surge of sympathy from voters to keep him in the race, but he’s likely right on the bubble. He’s either Daniel Craig in Queer or he’s Ana de Armas in Blonde (odd comparisons, but similarly divisive movies). The movie itself is not out of the race, but it would take a trojan horse-full of votes we don’t see coming (and we’ve already got a trojan horse in the race).

Elsinore: This film has been winning Audience Awards all over the damn place. Regardless of its tepidly-warm reception, this thing is a hit with audiences in a way that makes me question other “guaranteed” audience favorites in this lineup. People love to cry, Andrew Scott is a sure thing in Best Actor, Focus could repeat a Hamnet trajectory. Any time I think about doubting this movie, I reassess.

Fjord: I still feel the itch of Cristian Mungiu in Best Director. With the film still a strong contender for a screenplay nomination, I have to wonder if NEON can pull this one through to Best Picture. The Globes will certainly nominate it in many categories, but they’ll also probably love All of a Sudden, and it’s not like both can’t get in, the chances are just slim.

I Play Rocky: I teeter on this one still. It really could just be one of those films that people love that just can’t translate to votes. I still don’t believe in Ippolito’s chances for Best Actor when we have so many “in the club” names standing a firmer shot in bigger films. We must stay patient to see how big of a hit this turns out to be, but I don’t think I can doubt it.

Michael: Something tells me this will still eek out more nominations than we’re anticipating, but currently, I think we’re removed enough from it and enough more “talked about” movies have taken its place, that we can assume it may land a goose egg after all.

Misty Green: This getting punted to Netflix after only a couple of weeks of depressingly low box office and harsh reviews have ripped this film’s Oscar chances apart. Rosalind Eleazar, we’re still rooting for you!

Obsession: Bringing this one back around to say when one zeitgeist film enters, another zeitgeist film gets left in the dust. Navarette is still a good bet for a nomination because her category is so wide open and she’s become “a name”, but I just seriously doubt it has any shot elsewhere, even in screenplay. Even the Globes Comedy category, where it’s being submitted, may be too crowded. Too young, too first-timey, but it will regardless be known as a landmark 2020s horror film.

The Social Reckoning: Dead. Absolutely dead and buried.

Wildwood: While it’s box office was always expected to be a bit of a disappointment, with passionate rave reviews and astounding craft praised, we have our Best Animated Feature frontrunner. I still feel like other craft nominations are on the outside of the bubble, but not impossible. Kubo and the Two Strings received an incredibly cool Best Visual Effects nomination and this could repeat. Perhaps the Academy can finally reward a stop-motion film for Production Design, which has been long overdue.

You Can See Everything: In my last post, I had called this film an atomic bomb, yet only seriously considered it for Best Documentary Feature. However, after seeing it, and watching it take the world by storm afterwards, my first thought leaving the theatre was “oh this is getting into Best Picture”. Its Best Picture talk was so loud and its imprint on culture so huge, it suddenly emerged out of nowhere as the potential frontrunner for the prize. I must temper that a bit, as we’re dealing with unprecedented waters here, but passion is passion. As long as it can last another five months. But historic nominations for Best Director, Cinematography, Score, and yes, Supporting Actress, are now in play. Whether or not the Documentary branch is able to ignore its achievement remains to be seen and not underestimated, but I think it at least stands a massive shot at winning an Editing Oscar.

BEST PICTURE
All of a Sudden (NEON)
Dune Part Three (Warner Bros.)
Elsinore (Focus Features)
The Invite (A24)
I Play Rocky (Amazon MGM)
La Bola Negra (Netflix)
The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
You Can See Everything (A24)

Alt: Fjord

Alt: Martin McDonaugh (Wild Horse Nine)

Alt: Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary)

Alt: Olivia Wilde (The Invite)

Alt: Guitarricadelafuente (La Bola Negra)

Alt: Penelope Cruz (La Bola Negra)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Artificial
The Debut
Elsinore
Fjord
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: I Play Rocky

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All of a Sudden
Dune Part Three
The Invite
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey

Alt: Project Hail Mary

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All of a Sudden
Fjord
La Bola Negra
Minotaur
Possible Love

Alt: Rose

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Doctor
NAZA
Nuisance Bear
Once Upon A Time in Harlem
You Can See Everything

Alt: One in a Million

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Iron Boy
Ray Gunn
Tangles
Toy Story 5
Wildwood

Alt: Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Hollow

BEST CASTING
Fjord
I Play Rocky
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: The Debut

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Fatherland
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Werwulf

BEST EDITING
Dune Part Three
Elsinore
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
You Can See Everything

Alt: Wild Horse Nine

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Digger
Dune Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Wildwood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dune Part Three
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Wuthering Heights

Alt: Sense & Sensibility

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Bride!
Digger
The Odyssey
Rose
Wicker

Alt: Ebenezer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Alt: Avengers: Doomsday

BEST SOUND
Dune Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Mosquito Bowl
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Whalefall

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Disclosure Day
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
You Can See Everything

Alt: Wildwood

Alt: “The Better Part of Bravery” (Wildwood)

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!