PREDICTIONS: 99th Academy Awards Nominations (JULY)

Why must we be predicting Oscars 7 months in advance? How ridiculous! How ridiculous! This just turns film into an unnecessary contest instead of letting the films exist on their own terms. How dare me. Anyway…

As per usual, I’ll discuss a big list of films in contention this year (some I won’t even have on here for months until I have to submit – last year Weapons took until the last couple months before nominations for me to even consider it a possibility and it happened to be our Best Supporting Actress winning film.) There are plenty of gut-feelings I get early on that stick (me not taking Wicked for Good seriously, calling Wunmi Mosaku and Wagner Moura early) and others that well… maybe I put too much stock in Jay Kelly and After the Hunt. But it’s forgivable because it’s July!

The Adventures of Cliff Booth: I can’t imagine this will be the awards contender that Once Upon A Time in Hollywood was but the combination of Fincher and Tarantino should eek out something, right? Maybe another Best Picture nomination is a bit of a stretch, but I do expect this will be a big streaming hit and a comfortably good piece of cinema over the holiday season.

All of a Sudden: While this seemed like it had Palme D’or all sewn up after its premiere, it ended up with just a Best Actress prize at Cannes and the talk went fairly quiet. While I don’t expect this to repeat Hamaguchi’s success with Drive My Car, I do think there will be enough of a campaign by NEON to get it something, perhaps a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. I’d say it does have an outside shot at Best Picture, despite its incredibly patient runtime.

Artificial: All the talk about this film’s distribution and subject matter could lead to something really fascinating, but as much as I glazed the potential of After the Hunt, Queer, and Challengers, I must accept that maybe the Academy just doesn’t vibe with any of Guadagnino’s filmmaking choices after Call Me By Your Name.

Behemoth!: Tony Gilroy’s creative reinvigoration stemming from a Star Wars series seems strange on paper, but Andor was a generational piece of television and the trailer to Behemoth! radiates Best Director nomination energy. A former nominee for Michael Clayton, Gilroy hopes to carry star Pedro Pascal along with him for a new drama about a burdened cellist. For a film about film composing, though, don’t expect a Score nomination as this will undoubtedly be unqualified for having too many composers attached to provide music for this film (James Newton Howard, Henry Jackman, Alan Silvestri, Michael Abels, just to name a few.)

Being Huemann: Sian Heder directed a Best Picture winner, so her next film is automatically something to consider, sight unseen. It could just be a simple, sappy charmer or it could be her leveling up to something better and more rewarding than CODA. WHO KNOWS?

The Debut: A24’s most accessible contender and possibly an easy career win for Giamatti. Moore also feels ready to come back after her first win for Still Alice. Eisenberg is a real-deal director who works great with his actors.

Digger: On paper, this seems like a done deal. However, Inarritu’s last film also seemed like a slam dunk only to be considered a bloated mess. The trailer (and pitch in general) is fascinating and enticing, mostly to see Tom Cruise go full gonzo mode, but it also came off a bit repulsive and overly experimental. My gut feeling tells me this is a film audiences are really going to dislike and critics are going to be annoyed by, which could cost Cruise an overdue statue he so clearly is campaigning for. There is also THAT twist that’s been secretly circulating online that the marketing isn’t giving away. While it certainly will be a rug-pull given what the trailers suggest, it isn’t a twist that I think audiences or critics might appreciate. I want this to succeed so bad though, not just for Cruise, but also for John Goodman, more overdue than any actor of his generation.

Dune Part III: This thing looks amazing. I do think there will be a push to get Villenueve that Director nomination he’s missed out on for the prior two films. It will be the film people will be talking about most come Christmas, regardless of how much more money Avengers makes. Will it win any Oscars? Maybe not, actually, given another behemoth film this year (not Behemoth!) But if Denis pulls it off, this will be considered one of the great film trilogies in movie history.

Elsinore: A movie that seemed to come out of nowhere until Gregory Ellwood got our attention about it. The role of Andrew Scott’s career incoming?

Fjord: While the film may be polarizing, you can’t dismiss a Palme Winner and Cristian Mungiu has yet to be recognized despite a deeply-respected career. Stan’s performance might be too subtle, but Reinsve feels like a promising bet in Best Actress.

The Invite: This film as an awards contender felt like wishful thinking back at Sundance, but it’s new wave of appreciation this summer feels overwhelming. Penelope Cruz feels like she might have another acting trophy on her mantle. Olivia Wilde could be a presence in Best Director and what a comeback that would be.

Josephine: Distributer too small. Story too tough.

La Bola Negra: Netflix’s strongest bet for a Best Picture win since Roma (according to those that saw it at Cannes) and I think Netflix is definitely aware of that. A sweeping queer epic that blew the doors off the festival, the word “Oscars” was spoken a lot by critics after its screening and the Netflix purchase feels like a sealed deal.

Michael: People want to act like this movie isn’t happening, but people in the industry like this movie. It made a billion dollars. There is also an enormous lack of POC-led, mainstream awards contenders that feel like they have a shot (not to dismiss the quality of I Love Boosters, Is God Is, If I Go Will They Miss Me, etc.), people love Michael Jackson, and an audience-favorite like this is going to get votes. It feels like an obvious PGA nominee. It cannot be dismissed, reviews be damned.

Minotaur: Just… keep an eye out for this one, me thinks.

Obsession: Weird to have it on this list, but it’s clearly the biggest success of the year and with the amount of prestige filmmakers shouting it out… I still don’t know what to make of it. It is a wild film to even be in Oscar consideration talk. In my opinion, it’s a good, solid thriller for the young crowd and not much more. Inde Navarette is pretty great and will get recognized this awards season, but I still can’t see it getting in anywhere. Perhaps because it is just so Gen-Z targeted, the age group that is the reason it grossed $400M on a $750K and I’m sure if they were the ones voting, it’d be a guarantee top 5 for Best Picture. I’ve talked to people that disagree and say it’s a universally appealing film to everyone, and I’ve talked to people that think it’s just fine and overrated. I’m just not going all-in just yet. I have to wait and see how the year shakes out. It doesn’t have the artistic boost that Sinners had nor the Hollywood narrative of The Substance, but the Academy is a changin’. This will absolutely get a PGA nomination though.

The Odyssey: The real behemoth this year that will undoubtedly be the nomination leader of this year with Picture, Director, Acting, Cinematography, Score, Visuals, Sound, Casting, Production Design, Editing, everything. The whole package. A movie with the showmanship of a thousand movies combined. Also, I’ve seen this and haven’t reviewed it yet? I will! I promise! I’m just busier than holy hell.

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York: Never bet against Sony Pictures Classics ability to campaign a lead actor.

A Place in Hell: Made in a lab to get Michelle Williams a Best Actress nomination. Chloe Dumont is a promising enough director to make it happen.

Project Hail Mary: The early “first awards guarantee”. The crowd-pleaser of the year that will likely be nominated alongside the other two big fantasy epics of the year and win nothing. Gosling seemed like a safe bet early in the year, but the Best Actor race has thickened. The Supporting Actress race though? Welcome back, Sandra Huller.

Saturn Return: New Gregg Kwedar! The Kwedar/Bentley duo hasn’t missed yet and their last two collabs got nominations. Just waiting to see what this next film even is.

Sense & Sensibility: Georgia Oakley seems to be delivering a ravishingly beautiful new take on an old tale, but it’s rare that a new version on a work of literature done to death onscreen manages to balloon into one of the year’s most beloved movies. They can’t all be Little Women (2019)!

The Social Reckoning: I smell “This Had Oscar Buzz” all over this thing, but I do think Jeremy Strong could be a mainstay in Supporting Actor all season long for his uncanny portrayal of Big Zuck.

Werwulf: We all want it to happen, but with Eggers going more Eggers than before, can it really?

Wild Horse Nine: Word on the street is that McDonaugh has done it again. Whether he can outdo his masterpiece The Banshees of Inisherin is to be determined, but there is a lot of talk on John Malkovich for Best Actor and a hysterical trailer that is possibly hiding deeper layers. Outside of Jeff Bridges of course, it would also be nice to see all of The Big Lebowski cast get nominations this year (three of them their first) if Buscemi can finally get swept in.

With that out of the way, here’s what I’ve come up with…

BEST PICTURE
Behemoth! (Searchlight Pictures)
The Debut (A24)
Dune Part Three (Warner Bros.)
Fjord (NEON)
The Invite (A24)
La Bola Negra (Netflix)
Michael (Universal Pictures)
The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)

Alt: Digger

Alt: Martin McDonaugh (Wild Horse Nine)

Alt: Tom Cruise (Digger)

Alt: Inde Navarette (Obsession)

Alt: John Goodman (Digger)

Alt: Penelope Cruz (La Bola Negra)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Behemoth!
The Debut
Fjord
A Place in Hell
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: Obsession

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
All of a Sudden
The Invite
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey

Alt: Project Hail Mary

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All of a Sudden
Coward
Fjord
La Bola Negra
Minotaur

Alt: Fatherland

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Doctor
Birds of War
The History of Concrete
Nuisance Bear
Once Upon A Time in Harlem

Alt: To Hold a Mountain

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Ray Gunn
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Hollow
Tangles
Toy Story 5
Wildwood

Alt: Hoppers

BEST CASTING
Being Huemann
La Bola Negra
Michael
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Digger
Dune
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

BEST EDITING
Behemoth!
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: Dune Part Three

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Digger
Dune Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Wildwood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Michael
The Odyssey
Sense & Sensibility

Alt: Wuthering Heights

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Bride!
Clayface
Digger
The Odyssey
Wicker

Alt: Michael

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Whalefall

Alt: Godzilla Minus Zero

BEST SOUND
Behemoth!
Dune Part Three
Michael
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Alt: Whalefall

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Disclosure Day
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine

Alt: The Debut

Alt: “Runway” | The Devil Wears Prada 2

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Like and or comment below! Thank you for reading!